250
FXUS66 KMTR 300659
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1159 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST
- OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS THIS WEEKEND
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1149 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, AND VERY
SIMILAR NIGHT AHEAD. COASTAL STRATUS IS BUILDING ALONG THE SF
PENINSULA AND AROUND POINT REYES. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FILLING AROUND THE BAYS AS
POCKETS OF FOG FORM IN THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE REGION.
AGAIN THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF THE MARINE LAYER STAYING INTACT
DESPITE THE RIDGING PATTERN TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMING TREND FOR THE MORE INLAND AREAS, WHILE A
CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE MARINE LAYER STICK
AROUND AND KEEP THE COAST ON THE COOL SIDE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW HAS BEEN A BIG FACTOR IN THE BREEZINESS
IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THURSDAY SEES THE MARINE INFLUENCE KEEPING COASTAL AND SLIGHTLY
INLAND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH A FEW SPOTS BEING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COASTALS STRATUS LINGERS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN A
FEW SPOT. THE MORE INLAND AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE FAR INTERIOR LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND THE COAST WILL STAY AROUND 60
DEGREES, AND ALL THE AREAS IN BETWEEN WILL STICK TO THE 70S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1149 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
COASTAL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AGAIN ON FRIDAY,
AND THE MARINE LAYER STAYS STRONG, SO THE COAST WILL STAY ON THE
COOL SIDE. THE BEGINNING OF A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
PREVENT THE NORTH BAY FROM CONTINUED WARMING, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
SIMILAR HIGHS TO THURSDAY, IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHER MORE INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMING TREND PEAK EXPECT MORE AREAS TO BREAK
INTO THE 80S AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FAR INTERIOR WITH MAYBE
A FEW SPOTS BREAKING 90 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY CO.
THE PATTERN CHANGE REALLY GOES IN EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BUILD THAT NIGHT, AND THE
REDUCTION IN PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE MARINE LAYER TO EXPAND AND
PUSH FARTHER INLAND. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES, THE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE BAY AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL START WITH DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE LATER THAT NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTERS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
RAIN AND WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE CHANCES LOOK TO LAST THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO SLOW ITS MOMENTUM AND
OFFER PRECIP CHANCE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE GOOD, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
BEHIND IT, MOST MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY IN THE
MIDWEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE, THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 959 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
LATE AFTERNOON CU FIELD HAS FADED AND WINDS HAVE EASED. PATCHY
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR IMPACTS
FOR THE AM RUSH. VFR MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KHAF. MUCH HIGHER CONF FOR WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER BY
FRIDAY AM. FOG IMPACTS FOR N BAY, MOST LIKELY AT KSTS, THURSDAY AM.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT LINGERING THROUGH
THURSDAY AM. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE AFTERNOON WINDS.
LOWER STRATUS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AM.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
THEN THROUGH THURSDAY AM. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT EARLY RETURN
THURSDAY EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH A STRONG
BREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. WINDS START TO DECREASE SATURDAY AND
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MURDOCK
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