888
FXUS66 KMTR 010058
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
558 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST
- OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS INTO THE WEEKEND
- COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND/OR
LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS STRATUS BEGINS TO
PARTIALLY CLOAK THE COASTLINES OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 223 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
A FETCH OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT 925MB HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONFINED STRATUS TO THE COAST
ALONG THE SF PENINSULA. AS DIURNAL WINDS EASE THIS EVENING AND
DECOUPLE A RELATIVELY WEAK FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND PENETRATION INLAND TO THE NORTH
BAY, BAY AREA AND SALINAS VALLEY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HOW LAST NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING UNFOLDED, ALONG WITH FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS,
WITH CLEARING BY MID-MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOONS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA, EVEN WARMER OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST
AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 223 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL COAST BY SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND COASTAL RANGES
WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINING UNDER 0.10" OF AN INCH, WITH
MOST SPOTS SEEING A TRACE TO A 0.03" AT MOST. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE
WEAK DISTURBANCE GETS PICKED UP BY THE SOUTHERN JET AND BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS IT MOVES INLAND, BUT
ONCE AGAIN ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS, MOST LIKELY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO A NOTABLE COOL DOWN
MONDAY. AMPLIFIED RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES IN TUESDAY, WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN
BUILDING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND MVFR LEVELS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR ALONG
THE COAST AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...LOW CLOUD AND STRATUS CLOUD THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE RANGE RING AND ARE TRYING TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP. FOR NOW, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 12-15KT GUSTING UP TO 22-25KT THROUGH
ROUGHLY 3Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD FILL IN BETWEEN 6-9Z THIS EVENING,
THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD SNEAK IN EARLIER. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR CIGS AT SFO, OPTED TO HINT AT THAT RATHER THAN DROP SFO
TO OVC010 OR ANYTHING LESS THAN THAT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN
CLEARING BETWEEN 15-18Z, WITH CIGS COMPLETELY CLEARING BETWEEN 18-
20Z. TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BREEZY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
BUILDING STRATUS FOR THE SOUTHER PORTION OF THE MONTEREY BAY. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO FILTER IN, WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING BEGINS BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM PDT THU APR 30 2026
A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SEAS
BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 TO 12 FEET. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BY LATE SATURDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...RGASS
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