156
FXUS66 KMTR 010506
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1006 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST
- OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS INTO THE WEEKEND
- COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND/OR
LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS STRATUS BEGINS TO
PARTIALLY CLOAK THE COASTLINES OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 223 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
A FETCH OF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT 925MB HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONFINED STRATUS TO THE COAST
ALONG THE SF PENINSULA. AS DIURNAL WINDS EASE THIS EVENING AND
DECOUPLE A RELATIVELY WEAK FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND PENETRATION INLAND TO THE NORTH
BAY, BAY AREA AND SALINAS VALLEY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HOW LAST NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING UNFOLDED, ALONG WITH FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS,
WITH CLEARING BY MID-MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOONS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE
NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA, EVEN WARMER OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST
AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 223 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL COAST BY SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND COASTAL RANGES
WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINING UNDER 0.10" OF AN INCH, WITH
MOST SPOTS SEEING A TRACE TO A 0.03" AT MOST. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE
WEAK DISTURBANCE GETS PICKED UP BY THE SOUTHERN JET AND BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS IT MOVES INLAND, BUT
ONCE AGAIN ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS, MOST LIKELY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO A NOTABLE COOL DOWN
MONDAY. AMPLIFIED RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES IN TUESDAY, WITH A STEADY
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLITHER
INTO THE REGION. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND MVFR LEVELS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH STRATUS WILL RETURN TOMORROW EVENING.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...THE STRATUS ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
BASED ON THE LAST SET OF TAFS, WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING OVER THE
TERMINAL. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO EASE AND SHOULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10KT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN CLEARING BETWEEN
15-18Z, WITH CIGS COMPLETELY CLEARING BETWEEN 18-20Z. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
STRATUS SHOULD RETURN BETWEEN 00-03Z SATURDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. MVFR CIGS SHOULD COVER THE A
PORTION OF THE BAY THIS EVENING AND MAY FILL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY CLEAR A BIT FASTER THAN
KOAK AND KSFO IN THE MORNING. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...JUST WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE A HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS, IT THROWS YOU A CURVE BALL. WITH THAT BEING SAID, MVFR
CIGS HUG KMRY DOWN TO BIG SUR AND FLIRT AROUND KSNS THIS EVENING.
THE BEST GUIDANCE THAT CAPTURES THIS IS THE HREF AND NAMNEST, WITH
KSNS SEEING MVFR CIGS RETURN AROUND 09Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IF WE'LL ACTUALLY HIT IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRY AND KSNS, WITH KMRY
HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES. OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AROUND OVC007
THERE AND PUT KSNS AT OVC010 INSTEAD. CLEARING BEGINS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURNS
ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 903 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 TO 12 FEET. WITH EASING
WINDS, SEAS WILL BEGIN SUBSIDE BY LATE SATURDAY WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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