312
FXUS66 KMTR 020541
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1041 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL PERSIST AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- WARM AND DRY CONDITION'S RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 502 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING
OVERHEAD, WITH STRATUS SEEPING INTO THE COAST DUE TO THE DEEPENING
MARINE LAYER. THIS LOOKS TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
PERHAPS TO 1500 TO 2000FT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
WE'LL LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON BY SUNSET, WITH A PATTERN SHIFT TO PERSISTENT
TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
STRATUS HAS MOSTLY RETREATED BACK TO THE COASTLINE WITH SAN
FRANCISCO AND SF PENINSULA LAGGING A LITTLE BEHIND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A LAYER OF THIN
CIRRUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TRACKING SOUTH OFFSHORE TOWARD OUR LATITUDE, WE'LL SEE THE MARINE
LAYER CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND ITS INTRUSION INLAND WILL BE SIMILAR AS WHAT
WE SAW LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL TONIGHT, IT SHOULD TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO MIX OUT SATURDAY, INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ADJACENT
INLAND SPOTS, AND POTENTIALLY LINGER MOST IF NOT ALL DAY FOR
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
HIGHER ELEVATED COASTAL RANGES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THE INCREASED CLOUD CLOVER INLAND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO A MORE NOTABLE DROP IN INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND,
AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM TODAYS VALUES ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER 5 ON
SUNDAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR COASTAL AREAS UNDER THE CONTINUOUS
INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER. AS THE REX BLOCK BEGINS TO PIVOT
INLAND, SO TOO WILL THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW, BEGINNING TO TAKE A MORE
DIRECT PATH INLAND ON SUNDAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTTOM OUT TO BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER FROM ALREADY ANEMIC MOISTURE OFFERED IN
GUIDANCE EARLIER THIS WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE WILL BE
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AT TIMES MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST BUT WITH
NO IMPACTS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER UNDER PERSISTENT RIDGING WELL
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MIX OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS
SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE WINDS REDUCE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CLEARING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 KNOTS. STRATUS RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW EVENING WITH MVFR
CIGS TO PREVAIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH....SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. AN
EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE, WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8
TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KR
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