231
FXUS66 KMTR 020843
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
143 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL PERSIST AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 143 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK WILL SHIFT OVER
TO CHILLIER TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR RAIN. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL, AN INCREASING RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
IT'S A GOOD IDEA TO PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO OUR NEIGHBORING NWS
OFFICE'S FORECASTS TOO SINCE E.G. THE PATTERN MAY AFFECT TRAVEL
NEAR AND ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A 500 MB CLOSED LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO TONIGHT. OUT AHEAD
OF THE LOW, PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY STEADY COOLING THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
ENDED UP SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY MAY NORMAL HIGHS FRIDAY. THE LONGER
CLOUDS LINGER TODAY THE THE MORE DIFFICULT IT'LL BE E.G. TO WARM
PAST THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
FARTHER INLAND IT'LL BE EASIER TO REACH THE 60S AND 70S INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80S WELL INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INLAND TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE 50S AND
40S. SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT, BEST
PROBABILITY IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 143 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE 500 MB LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DYNAMIC COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THE 500 MB
LOW FOR EARLY MAY AS WILL RELATIVELY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
IN SITU ALONG THE WEST COAST; IT'S RESIDUAL PW LEFTOVER FROM A RECENT
NORTHWARD EXTENSION FAR NORTH OF HAWAII EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS
SHOWS UP TO 0.90" OF PW (90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MAY) REACHING THE
BAY AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. IT'S DURING THIS TIME WHEN
SOME MODEL FORECASTS LEAN WET AND SOME LEAN DRY. THE WET SOLUTIONS
SHOW WETTING RAIN (AT LEAST 0.10" OR GREATER) OVER MUCH OF THE BAY
AREA, WHILE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO A TRACE TO MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. IT'S A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES.
DURING MID TO LATE WEEK THE 500 MB LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
AWAY FROM CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN. THERE STILL MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE A DRY
AND WARMING TREND RETURNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MIX OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS
SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE WINDS REDUCE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CLEARING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 KNOTS. STRATUS RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW EVENING WITH MVFR
CIGS TO PREVAIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH....SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. AN
EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS IS LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE, WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8
TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KR
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