281
FXUS66 KMTR 021136
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
436 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL PERSIST AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 143 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK WILL SHIFT OVER
TO CHILLIER TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR RAIN. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL, AN INCREASING RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
IT'S A GOOD IDEA TO PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO OUR NEIGHBORING NWS
OFFICE'S FORECASTS TOO SINCE E.G. THE PATTERN MAY AFFECT TRAVEL
NEAR AND ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A 500 MB CLOSED LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO TONIGHT. OUT AHEAD
OF THE LOW, PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY STEADY COOLING THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
ENDED UP SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY MAY NORMAL HIGHS FRIDAY. THE LONGER
CLOUDS LINGER TODAY THE THE MORE DIFFICULT IT'LL BE E.G. TO WARM
PAST THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
FARTHER INLAND IT'LL BE EASIER TO REACH THE 60S AND 70S INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80S WELL INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INLAND TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE 50S AND
40S. SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT, BEST
PROBABILITY IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 143 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE 500 MB LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DYNAMIC COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THE 500 MB
LOW FOR EARLY MAY AS WILL RELATIVELY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
IN SITU ALONG THE WEST COAST; IT'S RESIDUAL PW LEFTOVER FROM A RECENT
NORTHWARD EXTENSION FAR NORTH OF HAWAII EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS
SHOWS UP TO 0.90" OF PW (90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MAY) REACHING THE
BAY AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. IT'S DURING THIS TIME WHEN
SOME MODEL FORECASTS LEAN WET AND SOME LEAN DRY. THE WET SOLUTIONS
SHOW WETTING RAIN (AT LEAST 0.10" OR GREATER) OVER MUCH OF THE BAY
AREA, WHILE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO A TRACE TO MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. IT'S A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES.
DURING MID TO LATE WEEK THE 500 MB LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
AWAY FROM CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN. THERE STILL MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE A DRY
AND WARMING TREND RETURNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MVFR-IFR CIGS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT ALL AIRPORTS ACROSS THE
BOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT (CONSISTENTLY IFR WHEREAS MOST AIRPORTS ARE MVFR) SO WENT
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES ARE SITTING WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT
THERE MAY BE SOME CIG FLUCTUATIONS INTO IFR TERRITORY BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT THE PREVAILING CEILING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS CLEARING BY LATE MORNING WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR COASTAL SITES (HAF, MRY). A SIMILAR CEILING SETUP LOOKS LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CIGS ON THE MVFR-IFR BORDER. LEFT CIGS ON THE
MVFR SIDE FOR TONIGHT GIVEN MODELS ARE TRENDING TOO LOW WITH CIG
HEIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WINDS EASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. CIGS CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
RETURN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS PEAKING BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS.
WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN MODERATE (10-14 KNOTS).
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH....SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE RECENTLY TRENDED UP (SLIGHTLY)
WITH MVFR CIGS SET TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL NOT CLEAR AT MRY
TODAY WHILE CIGS BRIEFLY CLEAR AT SNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10-12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH, THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE, WIND DRIVEN, SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. MODERATE SEAS
AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE NW BREEZE PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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