530
FXUS66 KMTR 021745
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1045 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL PERSIST AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 143 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK WILL SHIFT OVER
TO CHILLIER TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR RAIN. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL, AN INCREASING RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
IT'S A GOOD IDEA TO PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO OUR NEIGHBORING NWS
OFFICE'S FORECASTS TOO SINCE E.G. THE PATTERN MAY AFFECT TRAVEL
NEAR AND ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A 500 MB CLOSED LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED 400 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO TONIGHT. OUT AHEAD
OF THE LOW, PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY STEADY COOLING THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
ENDED UP SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY MAY NORMAL HIGHS FRIDAY. THE LONGER
CLOUDS LINGER TODAY THE THE MORE DIFFICULT IT'LL BE E.G. TO WARM
PAST THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
FARTHER INLAND IT'LL BE EASIER TO REACH THE 60S AND 70S INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80S WELL INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INLAND TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO THE 50S AND
40S. SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT, BEST
PROBABILITY IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 143 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE 500 MB LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DYNAMIC COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THE 500 MB
LOW FOR EARLY MAY AS WILL RELATIVELY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
IN SITU ALONG THE WEST COAST; IT'S RESIDUAL PW LEFTOVER FROM A RECENT
NORTHWARD EXTENSION FAR NORTH OF HAWAII EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS
SHOWS UP TO 0.90" OF PW (90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MAY) REACHING THE
BAY AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. IT'S DURING THIS TIME WHEN
SOME MODEL FORECASTS LEAN WET AND SOME LEAN DRY. THE WET SOLUTIONS
SHOW WETTING RAIN (AT LEAST 0.10" OR GREATER) OVER MUCH OF THE BAY
AREA, WHILE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO A TRACE TO MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. IT'S A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES.
DURING MID TO LATE WEEK THE 500 MB LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD
AWAY FROM CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN. THERE STILL MAY BE A WEAK TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE A DRY
AND WARMING TREND RETURNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
INLAND TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL TAF SITES WHERE WE
ARE VERY LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. GREATER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING TO COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS AND
SPREADING INLAND ACROSS MOST VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS ALSO INCREASING.
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS LESS
THAN A 20% PROBABILITY FOR IFR CIGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MAY SEE AN EARLIER CLEARING ACROSS THE
APPROACH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MRY TO
REMAIN MVFR WHILE SNS RETURNS TO VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN EARLY EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A 20%-30% PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOST OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE
TO FRESH AFTERWARDS. SEAS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. MODERATE SEAS AND A GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW BREEZE PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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