739
FXUS66 KMTR 202158
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
258 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 256 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2026
- DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS, WITH ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY LEADS TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE INTERIOR BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 256 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER, ~750 FT IN DEPTH, AND STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
THERE ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER, INLAND AREAS ARE
WELL ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE EASING OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW
CLOUDS HOVERING NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST, EXPECTING A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE AND
INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY (10-20%) WITH
POOR OVERNIGHT (LESS THAN 30% IN SPOTS) HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 256 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE MARINE
LAYER BECOMES AS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST REMAINS BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST. THE STRONGER
THE MARINE LAYER, THE LESS TIME THERE IS FOR DAYTIME HEATING
(ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY).
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH.
THEN, COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. AS SUCH, THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM THE CPC
INDICATES TEMPERATURES LEANING BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE SAME OUTLOOK
FOR PRECIPITATION LEANING ABOVE. AGAIN, ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR MAY BRING EITHER DRIZZLE AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION AS WE GO DEEPER INTO OUR "DRY SEASON". ALL THAT SAID, PLEASE
KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE LOCALLY BY THE AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS IN PATCHES
OVERHEAD AS WELL. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM THE COASTAL
STRATUS CLOUD DECK TO PUSH ONSHORE IMPACTING KHAF, KMRY, AND KSNS
TONIGHT. OTHER SITES WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A FEW TO SCATTERED DECK,
IF ANY AT ALL.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS REACHING UP TO 20KTS.
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS (SCT006) MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AIRSPACE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE IS FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
COASTAL STRATUS MAY BEGIN ITS PUSH ONSHORE AS EARLY AS 06Z, BUT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IT TO DEEPEN BY 07-09Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN
IFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITY MAY ALSO DROP TO MVFR WITH THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK. CONDITIONS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO MVFR-VFR BY 16Z AS THE STRATUS
BEGINS TO MIX OUT OF THE AREA.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR THE NORTHERN OUTERS DUE TO ROUGH SEAS AND STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEAS AND
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME MODERATE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...SARMENT
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