853
FXUS66 KMTR 240759
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1259 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND
- INSIDE SLIDER LIKE PATTERN WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY
AND KICKOFF A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DEEP AROUND 2,000 FEET WITH EARLY RETURNS
AND LATE CLEARINGS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH ONSHORE FLOW. GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, ACROSS RIDGELINES, AND THROUGH WEST-
EAST ORIENTED GAPS AND PASSES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
ARRIVING TUESDAY, MARKING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH TO THE
COAST, ACROSS RIDGELINES, AND THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES WITH
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE WATERS.
AS THE TROUGH DIGS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW. WHILE
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION, STRENGTH, AND TIMING, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT AN INSIDE SLIDER LIKE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE INSIDE SLIDER IS USUALLY SYNONYMOUS
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL HELP MITIGATE THESE CONCERNS FOR
NOW. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT NORTHERLY (DRYING) WINDS, KICKING OFF
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW
WILL FILL AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY, LEAVING ZONAL FLOW WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
BAY AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTH BAY TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE PROVIDES CONFIDENCE THAT
CIGS WILL MOSTLY BE MVFR OR HOVER NEAR IT, LIKE KSTS IS AT
ISSUANCE TIME. TIMING FOR MVFR TO VFR IS LESS CONFIDENT, WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR NEAR
COASTAL SITES.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS BETTER FOR KSFO AND KOAK THAN
OTHER SITES. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE MORNING, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS PERSIST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL.
ANOTHER OTTER EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTH BAY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THEN DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE
AND NORTH WITH MONTEREY BAY NOT SEEING ANY INFLUENCE AND POTENTIAL
HELP IN CLEARING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LIGHT BREEZES AND DIMINISHED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SET
TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING ROUGH SEAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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