222
FXUS66 KMTR 241201
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
501 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND
- INSIDE SLIDER LIKE PATTERN WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY
AND KICKOFF A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DEEP AROUND 2,000 FEET WITH EARLY RETURNS
AND LATE CLEARINGS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH ONSHORE FLOW. GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, ACROSS RIDGELINES, AND THROUGH WEST-
EAST ORIENTED GAPS AND PASSES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
ARRIVING TUESDAY, MARKING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH TO THE
COAST, ACROSS RIDGELINES, AND THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES WITH
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE WATERS.
AS THE TROUGH DIGS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW. WHILE
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION, STRENGTH, AND TIMING, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT AN INSIDE SLIDER LIKE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE INSIDE SLIDER IS USUALLY SYNONYMOUS
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL HELP MITIGATE THESE CONCERNS FOR
NOW. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT NORTHERLY (DRYING) WINDS, KICKING OFF
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW
WILL FILL AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY, LEAVING ZONAL FLOW WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE MARINE LAYER IS WELL ESTABLISHED, LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS
BEING POSSIBLE. STRATUS BURNS OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. STRATUS SHOULD
ALONG THE COAST TO SOME EXTENT WHICH COULD LEAVE SITES LIKE KHAF
WITH MVFR CIGS ALL DAY. GIVEN NO REAL PATTERN CHANGE TODAY, LOOK FOR
THE MARINE LAYER TO RETURN AND BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR CIGS.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS HAS YET TO FILL IN AT KFSO, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS IT SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE TERMINAL. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN, WHICH WILL THEN LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY THE SAME, MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO SFO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. PUSHED THE TIMING BACK SOME GIVEN WHAT HAS
OCCURRED THE LAST TWO DAYS, WITH SKIES CLEARING BY 17Z. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS PLAGUE THE TERMINALS AROUND
MONTEREY BAY, AS THE MARINE LAYER HOLDS AT ABOUT 2000FT THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
LIGHT BREEZES AND DIMINISHED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SET
TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING ROUGH SEAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...JM/KR
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page