659
FXUS66 KMTR 241810
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1110 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1107 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
WORK WEEK
- BREEZY, DRIZZLY, AND COOL TUESDAY AHEAD OF WARMING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1107 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
A STRONG MARINE LAYER AND GOOD ONSHORE FLOW LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING
OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
EDDY OFF THE COAST OF SONOMA CO MAY COMPLICATE CLEARING TIMES,
OTHERWISE A SIMILAR SET UP AS YESTERDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50 ALONG THE COAST, 60S FOR AREAS
MORE INLAND, THE LOW TO 70S FOR THE MORE INTERIOR AREAS, AND ONLY A
FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR BREAKING 80 DEGREES TODAY.
THE DEEP AND EXPANDED MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REALLY COME INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S, WITH
ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR FALLING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY INTO THE NIGHT AND WILL
CALL FOR A STRONGER INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY, LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND FAIR CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
ALSO CAUSE SLOWER CLEARING FOR THE INTERIOR, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LITTLE TO NO CLEARING ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT COOL COASTAL
CONDITIONS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEN THE AREAS
SLIGHTLY INLAND WILL HOVER AROUND THE MID TO LOWER 60S, AND THE FAR
INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO SPOTS BREAKING
80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1107 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. THIS WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE REGION
TO SEE THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST. THE RUSH OF
EVEN COOLER AIR MEETING WITH THE ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF THE
MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE GOOD CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND GUSTY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS PATTERN CHANGE, WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES SEEING CHANCES FOR GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 45 MPH. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS SHOWS THE FRONT
EXITING THE NORTH BAY EARLY ENOUGH IN DAY AND NORTHERLY DRY WINDS
AROUND THE LOW FOR SOME SLIGHT AND ISOLATED WARMING COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS COOL.
FROM THERE, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND AS A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE LOW
TRAVELS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SEE A NOTABLE REBOUND FOR
WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN ON THE CLEARER SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADILY WARMING INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE MARINE LAYER IS WELL ESTABLISHED, LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS
BEING POSSIBLE. STRATUS BURNS OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. STRATUS SHOULD
ALONG THE COAST TO SOME EXTENT WHICH COULD LEAVE SITES LIKE KHAF
WITH MVFR CIGS ALL DAY. GIVEN NO REAL PATTERN CHANGE TODAY, LOOK FOR
THE MARINE LAYER TO RETURN AND BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR CIGS.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS HAS YET TO FILL IN AT KFSO, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS IT SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE TERMINAL. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN, WHICH WILL THEN LAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY THE SAME, MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO SFO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. PUSHED THE TIMING BACK SOME GIVEN WHAT HAS
OCCURRED THE LAST TWO DAYS, WITH SKIES CLEARING BY 17Z. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS PLAGUE THE TERMINALS AROUND
MONTEREY BAY, AS THE MARINE LAYER HOLDS AT ABOUT 2000FT THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN HOLD INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
LIGHT BREEZES AND DIMINISHED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING ROUGH SEAS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THIS WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...CANEPA
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