269
FXUS66 KMTR 241841
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1141 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1107 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
WORK WEEK
- BREEZY, DRIZZLY, AND COOL TUESDAY AHEAD OF WARMING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1107 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
A STRONG MARINE LAYER AND GOOD ONSHORE FLOW LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING
OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
EDDY OFF THE COAST OF SONOMA CO MAY COMPLICATE CLEARING TIMES,
OTHERWISE A SIMILAR SET UP AS YESTERDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50 ALONG THE COAST, 60S FOR AREAS
MORE INLAND, THE LOW TO 70S FOR THE MORE INTERIOR AREAS, AND ONLY A
FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR BREAKING 80 DEGREES TODAY.
THE DEEP AND EXPANDED MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL REALLY COME INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S, WITH
ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR FALLING INTO THE MID 40S.
THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY INTO THE NIGHT AND WILL
CALL FOR A STRONGER INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY, LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND FAIR CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
ALSO CAUSE SLOWER CLEARING FOR THE INTERIOR, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LITTLE TO NO CLEARING ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT COOL COASTAL
CONDITIONS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEN THE AREAS
SLIGHTLY INLAND WILL HOVER AROUND THE MID TO LOWER 60S, AND THE FAR
INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO SPOTS BREAKING
80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1107 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. THIS WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE REGION
TO SEE THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST. THE RUSH OF
EVEN COOLER AIR MEETING WITH THE ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF THE
MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE GOOD CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND GUSTY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS PATTERN CHANGE, WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES SEEING CHANCES FOR GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 45 MPH. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS SHOWS THE FRONT
EXITING THE NORTH BAY EARLY ENOUGH IN DAY AND NORTHERLY DRY WINDS
AROUND THE LOW FOR SOME SLIGHT AND ISOLATED WARMING COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS COOL.
FROM THERE, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND AS A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE LOW
TRAVELS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES SEE A NOTABLE REBOUND FOR
WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN ON THE CLEARER SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADILY WARMING INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY, WEAK, NEAR SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WEST OF POINT
REYES. INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION WARMING, MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT HAS MIXED OUT THE REMAINING STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA TO THE EAST BAY. STRATUS /MVFR/ CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTH BAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION
AND GENTLE UPSLOPING WINDS. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE LAYER OF STRATUS
/MVFR/ CONTINUES TO STEADILY DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY BEGINNING
EARLY MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER STRATUS
/MVFR/. STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY, STRATUS LIKELY
SLOW TO MIX OUT ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH CHILLY ONSHORE WINDS. PATCHY
LIGHT COASTAL DRIZZLE/RAIN TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING THEN STRATUS /MVFR/
REDEVELOPS WITH MIX OUT TO VFR 20Z ON MEMORIAL DAY. SOUTHWEST WIND
7 TO 14 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 14 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
MEMORIAL DAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS /MVFR/ SLOWLY MIXING OUT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF VFR IS DURING THIS TIME.
STRATUS /MVFR/ RETURNS TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
LIGHT BREEZES AND DIMINISHED SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING ROUGH SEAS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THIS WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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