202
FXUS66 KMTR 251931
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1231 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
- CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY TO START TUESDAY WITH BUILDING WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD WARMING AND DRYING STARTS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO STAY STRONG WITH THE DAY STARTING OFF
WITH NEARLY WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, BUT CHANCES HAVE REDUCED INTO
THE LATE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING INTO THE AREA, WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE EROSION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS, LEADING TO COOLER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE COAST TO REMAIN COOL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEN THE AREAS SLIGHTLY INLAND WILL HOVER AROUND
THE MID TO LOWER 60S, AND THE FAR INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO SPOTS BREAKING 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
CO.
OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA A LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. THIS
WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE REGION TO SEE THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUDIEST SKIES OF THE FORECAST. THE RUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG
THE FRONT WILL OFF GOOD CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG COASTAL
PEAKS. WHILE OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD, THE OVERALL TOTALS
LOOK TO STAY BELOW JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS PATTERN CHANGE,
WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES SEEING
CHANCES FOR GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 45 MPH. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE FRONT EXITING THE NORTH BAY EARLY ENOUGH IN DAY( AND
NORTHERLY DRY WINDS AROUND THE LOW) FOR SOME SLIGHT AND ISOLATED
WARMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS COOL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
CLOUD COVER ERODES TUESDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE POST-FONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST. WINDS DECREASE INTO THE NIGHT, BUT REMAIN
NORTHERLY. THE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING TO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAKING IT THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK MARINE LAYER
REFORMING AS WINDS REDUCE, BUT IT LOOKS TO NOT BE AS MOISTURE RICH
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND BARELY MOVES INLAND.
FROM THERE, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND AS A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE LOW
TRAVELS TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEE A NOTABLE REBOUND FOR
WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN ON THE CLEARER SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADILY WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE WEEKEND ITSELF HAS A
WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
WHILE SOME KEEP THE WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW DUE TO MODEST
RIDGING, OTHERS HINT AT A MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW DEVELOPING
AND PUSHING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS
ON THE CONTINUED WARMING TREND MODEL OUTPUTS, BUT THAT CAN CHANGE
QUITE A BIT AS NEW MODEL RUNS PUBLISH AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
COME INTO RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS /MVFR/ COVERAGE LATE
THIS MORNING. POOL OF STRATUS CORRESPONDS TO A POOL OF CHILLY
SURFACE TO LOWER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MIXING
OUT OF STRATUS IS OCCURING ON THE INLAND EDGES AND DO EXPECT SOME
ADDITIONAL MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. AT
THE 925 MB LEVEL (~ 2500 FEET) TEMPERATURES ARE CHILLY I.E. <
10TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MAY LONG TERM OAKLAND UPPER AIR SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED AND WILL STAY STEADY
TONIGHT THEN DEEPEN MORE TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOL AIR
ADVECTION UP THROUGH 850 MB LEVEL (~ 5000 FEET). ONSHORE WINDS
PREVAIL, SFO-SAC IS CURRENTLY 2.4 MB. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGS
REINFORCING CHILLY AIR MASS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS /MVFR-VFR/, ALONG WITH TEMPORARY CLEARING
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH IT'S LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN CURRENT
PATTERN. THE 18Z TAF CARRIES STRATUS FOR THE TIME BEING. WEST WIND
UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST WIND
BECOMING GUSTY TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS POST COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS /MVFR-VFR/ ALONG WITH TEMPORARY
CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH WINDOW OF CLEARING IF IT
OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING
TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS POST COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES TODAY BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
STRONG WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS DURING
MID-WEEK. EXPECT BUILDING ROUGH SEAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH
LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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