393
FXUS66 KMTR 252345
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
445 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
- CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY TO START TUESDAY WITH BUILDING WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD WARMING AND DRYING STARTS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO STAY STRONG WITH THE DAY STARTING OFF
WITH NEARLY WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, BUT CHANCES HAVE REDUCED INTO
THE LATE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING INTO THE AREA, WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE EROSION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS, LEADING TO COOLER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE COAST TO REMAIN COOL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEN THE AREAS SLIGHTLY INLAND WILL HOVER AROUND
THE MID TO LOWER 60S, AND THE FAR INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO SPOTS BREAKING 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
CO.
OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA A LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. THIS
WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE REGION TO SEE THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUDIEST SKIES OF THE FORECAST. THE RUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG
THE FRONT WILL OFF GOOD CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG COASTAL
PEAKS. WHILE OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD, THE OVERALL TOTALS
LOOK TO STAY BELOW JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS PATTERN CHANGE,
WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES SEEING
CHANCES FOR GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 45 MPH. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE FRONT EXITING THE NORTH BAY EARLY ENOUGH IN DAY( AND
NORTHERLY DRY WINDS AROUND THE LOW) FOR SOME SLIGHT AND ISOLATED
WARMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS COOL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
CLOUD COVER ERODES TUESDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE POST-FONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST. WINDS DECREASE INTO THE NIGHT, BUT REMAIN
NORTHERLY. THE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING TO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAKING IT THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK MARINE LAYER
REFORMING AS WINDS REDUCE, BUT IT LOOKS TO NOT BE AS MOISTURE RICH
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND BARELY MOVES INLAND.
FROM THERE, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND AS A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE LOW
TRAVELS TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEE A NOTABLE REBOUND FOR
WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN ON THE CLEARER SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADILY WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE WEEKEND ITSELF HAS A
WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
WHILE SOME KEEP THE WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW DUE TO MODEST
RIDGING, OTHERS HINT AT A MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW DEVELOPING
AND PUSHING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS
ON THE CONTINUED WARMING TREND MODEL OUTPUTS, BUT THAT CAN CHANGE
QUITE A BIT AS NEW MODEL RUNS PUBLISH AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
COME INTO RANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE TO COASTAL
SITES WITH SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIDESPREAD
NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
RISE/DISSIPATE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. FOR THE BAY AREA CIGS
CLEAR AROUND 10-12Z WHILE CIGS CLEAR CLOSER TO 14/15Z FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FILTER IN LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
10Z AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS BECOMING LIKELY AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED MRY
AND SNS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14/15Z WHEN COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY AT MRY AND SNS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING BY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE BAYS. EXPECT
BUILDING ROUGH SEAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH LOOK TO LAST
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...CANEPA
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