956
FXUS66 KMTR 260448
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
948 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
- CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY TO START TUESDAY WITH BUILDING WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD WARMING AND DRYING STARTS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO STAY STRONG WITH THE DAY STARTING OFF
WITH NEARLY WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, BUT CHANCES HAVE REDUCED INTO
THE LATE MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING INTO THE AREA, WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE EROSION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS, LEADING TO COOLER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE COAST TO REMAIN COOL UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEN THE AREAS SLIGHTLY INLAND WILL HOVER AROUND
THE MID TO LOWER 60S, AND THE FAR INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO SPOTS BREAKING 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY
CO.
OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA A LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. THIS
WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE REGION TO SEE THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUDIEST SKIES OF THE FORECAST. THE RUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG
THE FRONT WILL OFF GOOD CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG COASTAL
PEAKS. WHILE OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD, THE OVERALL TOTALS
LOOK TO STAY BELOW JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AND GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THIS PATTERN CHANGE,
WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES SEEING
CHANCES FOR GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 45 MPH. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE FRONT EXITING THE NORTH BAY EARLY ENOUGH IN DAY( AND
NORTHERLY DRY WINDS AROUND THE LOW) FOR SOME SLIGHT AND ISOLATED
WARMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS COOL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
CLOUD COVER ERODES TUESDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE POST-FONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST. WINDS DECREASE INTO THE NIGHT, BUT REMAIN
NORTHERLY. THE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING TO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAKING IT THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK MARINE LAYER
REFORMING AS WINDS REDUCE, BUT IT LOOKS TO NOT BE AS MOISTURE RICH
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND BARELY MOVES INLAND.
FROM THERE, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND AS A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE LOW
TRAVELS TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEE A NOTABLE REBOUND FOR
WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN ON THE CLEARER SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADILY WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE WEEKEND ITSELF HAS A
WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.
WHILE SOME KEEP THE WARMING TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW DUE TO MODEST
RIDGING, OTHERS HINT AT A MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW DEVELOPING
AND PUSHING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS
ON THE CONTINUED WARMING TREND MODEL OUTPUTS, BUT THAT CAN CHANGE
QUITE A BIT AS NEW MODEL RUNS PUBLISH AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
COME INTO RANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT BRINGING CEILINGS THAT ARE ON THE BORDER OF MVFR/VFR.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z IN THE BAY AREA AND 13/14Z IN THE
CENTRAL COAST. CIGS GENERALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN. GUSTS PEAK BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS TOMORROW
WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS START TO EASE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN GUSTY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT (POTENTIALLY
REACHING HAF, MRY, SNS) WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CIGS STAY ON THE MVFR/VFR BORDER THROUGH 10Z WITH
TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG HEIGHT UP AND DOWN. GUSTS INCREASE
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30+ KNOT GUSTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT LARGELY REMAIN GUSTY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CIGS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
WITH FLUCTUATIONS TO CONTINUE OCCURRING THROUGH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
(APPROX. 13-15Z). GUSTS STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS PEAKING
BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS. WINDS START TO EASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD BUT REMAIN GUSTY OVERALL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS TO RETURN AS EARLY AS 03Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
INCREASING BETWEEN 03-06Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 948 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE INCREASES OVERNIGHT DUE TO COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS,
AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. ROUGH SEAS
BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 TO 15 FEET TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM PDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page