082
FXUS66 KMTR 260701
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1201 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
- COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR COASTAL AND HIGHER
TERRAIN DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
TUESDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE BROUGHT TO YOU BY A COLD FRONT. THE
ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS ALREADY DONE A NUMBER ON THE MARINE LAYER,
MAKING IT TOO DIFFUSE TO SUPPORT ITSELF. DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLEAR SKIES
AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE INNER WATERS
AND MONTEREY BAY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND EAST
BAY HILLS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO CALIFORNIA, BECOMING
A CUTOFF LOW WEDNESDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR-STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS SUCH, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL WINDS. OF MORE
INTEREST AND POTENTIAL IMPACT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BOTH RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AS A TRIGGER
WITH ACCUMULATION DEPENDENT ON WHERE THEY DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE LOW
(LESS THAN 15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RELATIVELY BEST CHANCES
FOR THE FAR INTERIOR. THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE IF LIFT,
INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE CAN OVERLAP SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD LOW CAPE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR AVERAGE (0.60 INCHES) THEN, MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. BY THURSDAY, PWAT VALUES INCREASES TO
NEAR ONE INCH AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA; AT
THE SAME TIME, THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO RESTABILIZE LIKELY MAKING
INSTABILITY THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. NEW
WILDFIRE STARTS WILL BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD DUE TO FUELS BEING ABOUT
A MONTH AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY, LEAVING THE REGION UNDER ZONAL FLOW. A MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER-LEVEL
LONGWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT BRINGING CEILINGS THAT ARE ON THE BORDER OF MVFR/VFR.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z IN THE BAY AREA AND 13/14Z IN THE
CENTRAL COAST. CIGS GENERALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN. GUSTS PEAK BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS TOMORROW
WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS START TO EASE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN GUSTY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT (POTENTIALLY
REACHING HAF, MRY, SNS) WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CIGS STAY ON THE MVFR/VFR BORDER THROUGH 10Z WITH
TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG HEIGHT UP AND DOWN. GUSTS INCREASE
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH 30+ KNOT GUSTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT LARGELY REMAIN GUSTY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CIGS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
WITH FLUCTUATIONS TO CONTINUE OCCURRING THROUGH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
(APPROX. 13-15Z). GUSTS STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS PEAKING
BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS. WINDS START TO EASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD BUT REMAIN GUSTY OVERALL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS TO RETURN AS EARLY AS 03Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
INCREASING BETWEEN 03-06Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 948 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE INCREASES OVERNIGHT DUE TO COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS,
AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. ROUGH SEAS
BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 TO 15 FEET TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM PDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES
TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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