822
FXUS66 KMTR 261610
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
910 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 908 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS MARINE
AND BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
- COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING, DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FELL ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENTIO CONTINUES. AS SUCH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
LARGELY BEEN LESS THAN 0.05". HOWEVER, UP TO AROUND 0.10"-0.20" HAS
BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY PENINSULAS. THE
DIVER OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW,
WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER, UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND RESUMES BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR MORE ON THE WINDS!
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
TUESDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE BROUGHT TO YOU BY A COLD FRONT. THE
ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS ALREADY DONE A NUMBER ON THE MARINE LAYER,
MAKING IT TOO DIFFUSE TO SUPPORT ITSELF. DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLEAR SKIES
AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE INNER WATERS
AND MONTEREY BAY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND EAST
BAY HILLS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO CALIFORNIA, BECOMING
A CUTOFF LOW WEDNESDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR-STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS SUCH, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL WINDS. OF MORE
INTEREST AND POTENTIAL IMPACT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BOTH RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AS A TRIGGER
WITH ACCUMULATION DEPENDENT ON WHERE THEY DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE LOW
(LESS THAN 15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RELATIVELY BEST CHANCES
FOR THE FAR INTERIOR. THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE IF LIFT,
INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE CAN OVERLAP SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD LOW CAPE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR AVERAGE (0.60 INCHES) THEN, MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. BY THURSDAY, PWAT VALUES INCREASES TO
NEAR ONE INCH AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA; AT
THE SAME TIME, THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO RESTABILIZE LIKELY MAKING
INSTABILITY THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. NEW
WILDFIRE STARTS WILL BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD DUE TO FUELS BEING ABOUT
A MONTH AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY, LEAVING THE REGION UNDER ZONAL FLOW. A MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER-LEVEL
LONGWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THIS IS THE FIRST MORNING I'M NOT WRITING ABOUT WIDESPREAD STRATUS,
BUT RATHER A COLD FRONT! THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY
DOWN THE BAY AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL COAST. COASTAL AND HIGHER
ELEVATION DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM IN
ADDITION TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND IT,
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS,
BUT MORE NOTABLY ARE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP THIS MORNING AND THEN PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 20-30KT FOR
MOST TAF SITES, THOUGH 30-35KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND AT KSFO. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
40KT GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AND AT KSFO; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANYTHING GREATER THAN 35KT AT THIS TIME. LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS EASE AND THEN
FALL AT OR BELOW 10KT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, THOUGH A FEW
MODELS TRY TO BRING POCKETS OF STRATUS BACK TONIGHT. LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW FORECAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND IFR CONDITIONS. IN ITS WAKE,
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP WHILE MVFR CIGS LINGER. CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL HOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 25KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KT BETWEEN 20-4Z. WINDS WILL THEN EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING, AND THEN WE LOOK AT THE PROBABILITY FOR STRATUS. SOME HI-
RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT. THIS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 02-6Z OR AS LATE AS 9Z.
OPTED TO HINT AT THE LATER START BUT DIDN'T BRING IN THE CIGS AT BKN
OR OVC. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST THIS
MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW CLOUD TIMING FOR TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING BRINGING MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN
DRIZZLE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND CLOUDS
LIFT TO VFR CRITERIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 3-6Z. OPTED TO GO WITH THE LATER
START AND THEN KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
LEADING TO FRESH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG
GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS, AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. ROUGH SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 TO 15 FEET
TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-
PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...CANEPA
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