352
FXUS66 KMTR 261755
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1055 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 908 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS MARINE
AND BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
- COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING, DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN FELL ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENTIO CONTINUES. AS SUCH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
LARGELY BEEN LESS THAN 0.05". HOWEVER, UP TO AROUND 0.10"-0.20" HAS
BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY PENINSULAS. THE
DIVER OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW,
WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER, UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND RESUMES BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR MORE ON THE WINDS!
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
TUESDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE BROUGHT TO YOU BY A COLD FRONT. THE
ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS ALREADY DONE A NUMBER ON THE MARINE LAYER,
MAKING IT TOO DIFFUSE TO SUPPORT ITSELF. DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CLEAR SKIES
AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE INNER WATERS
AND MONTEREY BAY. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND EAST
BAY HILLS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO CALIFORNIA, BECOMING
A CUTOFF LOW WEDNESDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR-STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS SUCH, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL WINDS. OF MORE
INTEREST AND POTENTIAL IMPACT IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BOTH RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AS A TRIGGER
WITH ACCUMULATION DEPENDENT ON WHERE THEY DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE LOW
(LESS THAN 15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RELATIVELY BEST CHANCES
FOR THE FAR INTERIOR. THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE IF LIFT,
INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE CAN OVERLAP SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD LOW CAPE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR AVERAGE (0.60 INCHES) THEN, MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. BY THURSDAY, PWAT VALUES INCREASES TO
NEAR ONE INCH AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAY AREA; AT
THE SAME TIME, THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO RESTABILIZE LIKELY MAKING
INSTABILITY THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. NEW
WILDFIRE STARTS WILL BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD DUE TO FUELS BEING ABOUT
A MONTH AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY, LEAVING THE REGION UNDER ZONAL FLOW. A MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER-LEVEL
LONGWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MVFR-VFR WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY THEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH 05Z
THIS EVENING, WIND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZES (12-15 KTS) PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS. AROUND 02-03Z WEDNESDAY, MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE TERMINALS. MODERATE, GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BECOME MORE GENTLE (5-10KTS). THERE MAY BE SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING (12Z) AT BOTH TERMINALS, THOUGH IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL IF ANY DEVELOPS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG TO GALE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AS WELL. ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 12
TO 15 FEET TODAY INTO LATE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-
PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...CANEPA/NAVARRETE
MARINE...CANEPA
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