554
FXUS66 KMTR 302337
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
437 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY, THEN CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY INTO BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN BY END OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1227 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
IN NORTHWEST FACING COASTAL AREAS WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO
THE LOW- TO-UPPER 70S. THIS IS AS LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE REGIONWIDE. THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS HAVE A GREATER
THAN 60% PROBABILITY OF REACHING 80 DEG F, SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN
SALINAS VALLEY AND FAR INTERIOR EAST BAY (BYRON AND BRENTWOOD TO
NAME A FEW).
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO RETURN IS AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70 DEG F NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE
MOST NOTABLE WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH MIDDLE
70S TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1227 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
THE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND BE MORE
OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST ON MONDAY. THUS, TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND, WARMING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. STILL EXPECTING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE COAST, BUT IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT
COASTAL AREAS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. BY TUESDAY THE MARINE
LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 1,000 FT ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS TO RETURN INTO INLAND VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS, CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.
WARMING RESUMES ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED MARINE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE WPC 500MB HEIGHT-BASED
CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS INCREASING PROBABILITIES THAT A TROUGH WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION, HOWEVER RAIN WOULD LIKELY REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD SET OF TAFS AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS HALF MOON BAY,
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS JUST ROLLED IN. MRY AND SNS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP A CEILING IN THE EARLY MORNING. SFO AND OAK ARE MORE
50/50, AND THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE WINDS START TO EASE
TONIGHT. I ADDED A TEMPO LINE FOR THE BEST CEILING WINDOW
(12Z-16Z). RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A 40% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME, WITH A 60% CHANCE OF VFR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD HAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF STAYING
VFR. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY, WITH VERY
SIMILAR TIMING AND STRENGTH THAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...OUTSIDE OF HAF, MRY AND SNS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO REFORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOMEWHERE AROUND 70-80% CHANCE FOR MRY AND 40-50% CHANCE
FOR SNS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE OCCURING OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE BEING
OBSERVED OFFSHORE. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN THE
FAR OUTER WATERS AND THE COASTAL JETS TO THE SOUTH OF POINT ARENA
AND ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE AND
BECOME ROUGH LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...KR
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page