429
FXUS66 KMTR 310708
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1208 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
- MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1005 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WEAK RIDGING STALLS OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF TODAY BEFORE AMPLIFYING
SOMEWHAT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. BEFORE THAT, WE WILL SEE A NOTABLE INCREASE
OF AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS HIGHS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS, SOUTH BAY, EAST BAY HILLS AND SALINAS VALLEY
SOUTH OF SOLEDAD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE (60%-100%) OF REACHING 80
DEGREES, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM COASTAL
INFLUENCES IN THE 70S, AND 60S FOR COASTAL AREAS. MARINE LAYER WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1005 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
EXPECT ANOTHER JUMP AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK, UNORGANIZED JET STREAM FLOW AT H30. SPLIT
UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL COOL
DOWN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW BACKING OFF THE DEEPER
TROUGHING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NET RESULT WOULD
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 929 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND COASTAL STRATUS TONIGHT. HAF, MRY, SNS,
SFO, AND OAK ARE THE ONES TO WATCH, LISTED IN ORDER OF DECREASING
PROBABILITIES. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...THE TERMINAL REMAINS VFR, ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF
STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PENINSULA. THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING, BUT HELD ON LONGER THAN I THOUGHT THEY
WOULD. THE PROBABILITY FOR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING IS AROUND 40%,
BUT THE WINDOW IS SHORT ENOUGH TO CAPTURE IN A TEMPO GROUP. THE
AFTERNOON WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE CLEAR AS THE ONSHORE WINDS
RETURN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MRY JUST DEVELOPED A CEILING OUT OF
NOWHERE. I EXPECTED THAT TO HAPPEN TONIGHT, BUT NOT THIS EARLY.
I'M NOT SURE THAT THIS FIRST CLOUD WILL SURVIVE THE NIGHT, SO I'M
KEEPING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF VFR FOR NOW.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT, WITH BUOYS
REPORTING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. A FRESH NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE
AND BECOME ROUGH LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL COME INTO EFFECT AT 5 AM TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
AND RIP CURRENTS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST, WITH PERIODS OF 18 TO 20 SECONDS AND A HEIGHT OF
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULT
IN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES, POTENTIALLY DEADLY WAVES WHICH
SURGE MUCH FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED AND SWEEP UNAWARE
BEACHGOERS INTO THE OCEAN, AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THAT CAN SWEEP
THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN! INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY FROM THE WATER.
OBSERVE THE WAVES FOR 20 MINUTES BEFORE MOVING CLOSER. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE, AND IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, SWIM
PARALLEL TO THE COAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT, AND THEN AT AN ANGLE
TO SHORE.
DIALH
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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