719
FXUS66 KMTR 311120
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
420 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
- MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1005 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WEAK RIDGING STALLS OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF TODAY BEFORE AMPLIFYING
SOMEWHAT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. BEFORE THAT, WE WILL SEE A NOTABLE INCREASE
OF AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS HIGHS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS, SOUTH BAY, EAST BAY HILLS AND SALINAS VALLEY
SOUTH OF SOLEDAD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE (60%-100%) OF REACHING 80
DEGREES, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM COASTAL
INFLUENCES IN THE 70S, AND 60S FOR COASTAL AREAS. MARINE LAYER WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1005 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
EXPECT ANOTHER JUMP AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK, UNORGANIZED JET STREAM FLOW AT H30. SPLIT
UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL COOL
DOWN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW BACKING OFF THE DEEPER
TROUGHING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NET RESULT WOULD
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
PATCHES OF MVFR-IFR STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA AND WITHIN THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY REGION,
THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS VFR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF FURTHER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, MVFR-IFR STRATUS
RETURNS TO COASTAL REGIONS SOUTH OF POINT REYES, WITH A PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS ON THE WESTERN SAN MATEO PENINSULA AND MONTEREY BAY, WITH
LOW PROBABILITIES OF INLAND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ON THE
IMMEDIATE SF AND SAN PABLO BAYS.
VICINITY OF SFO... CLEAR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS MOVING AWAY FROM STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT, CONSIDERED
REMOVING THE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR STRATUS AT SFO AND OAK. HOWEVER,
THE POSSIBILITY OF RADIATIVE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS HOLDING ME BACK
AT THIS TIME. MIGHT REMOVE THE GROUPS AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PROBABILITIES OF STRATUS COVERAGE
RETURN TO THE TERMINAL AREA.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. IFR STRATUS RETURNS TO
THE TERMINAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF MONDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH BUOYS REPORTING ROUGH SEAS AND OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS. A FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH A SLIGHT DIMINISHMENT LATER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
RETURNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL COME INTO EFFECT AT 5 AM TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
AND RIP CURRENTS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST, WITH PERIODS OF 18 TO 20 SECONDS AND A HEIGHT OF
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULT
IN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES, POTENTIALLY DEADLY WAVES WHICH
SURGE MUCH FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED AND SWEEP UNAWARE
BEACHGOERS INTO THE OCEAN, AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THAT CAN SWEEP
THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN! INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY FROM THE WATER.
OBSERVE THE WAVES FOR 20 MINUTES BEFORE MOVING CLOSER. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE, AND IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, SWIM
PARALLEL TO THE COAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT, AND THEN AT AN ANGLE
TO SHORE.
DIALH
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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