601
FXUS66 KMTR 010438
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
938 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- CONTINUED WARMING FOR TODAY AND MONDAY
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER ALLOWED FOR A QUICK EROSION OF COASTAL
STRATUS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NOW WE'RE SEEING CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
ALREADY WARMING INTO THE 70S IN THE INTERIOR.
HIGHS LOOKS TO STAY AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH 70S
FOR THE MORE INLAND AREAS, 80S FOR THE INTERIOR, AND A FEW 90S IN
THE FAR INTERIOR. THIS IS AS A RIDGE PATTERN TAKES A BETTER HOLD
ONTO THE REGION, CALLING FOR CONTINUED COMPRESSION OF THE MARINE
LAYER, WEAKENING WINDS, AND BUILDING TEMPERATURES.
THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER (AROUND 500 FT) WILL STILL HAVE GOOD
MOISTURE CONTENT OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO VERY LOW COASTAL CLOUDS AND
POCKETS OF FOG. BECAUSE OF HOW COMPRESSED THE MARINE LAYER IS, DON'T
EXPECT MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH OVERNIGHT, CAUSING MOST OF THE REGION
TO STAY CLOUD FREE. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF WINDS AND A SLIGHT THERMAL
BELT, LOOK TO ALLOW SOME OF THE DAY TIME HEAT TO LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT, PLACING LOWS MORE INTO THE 50S THAN THE 40S OF THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS.
THIS IS ALL TO SAY THE WARMING TREND IS CONTINUING.
MONDAY WILL OFFER SIMILAR STRATUS CLEARING TIMES, BUT AN OVERALL
WARMER AFTERNOON. THE COAST WILL STILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES AND THE
SLIGHTLY INLAND AREAS IN THE 70S, BUT MUCH MORE OF THE INTERIOR WILL
BREAK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND MORE AREAS IN THE FAR INTERIOR
WILL BUILD INTO THE 90S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AS WELL WITH
MOST OF THE FALLING INTO THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH A
FEW 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE THERMAL
BELT.
TUESDAY OFFERS A CHANGE OF PACE AS A WEAK TROUGH DISRUPTS THE
RIDGING PATTERN. THIS WILL PUSH SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AREA
AND OFFER BETTER ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SEE SOME
MODEST COOLING FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT, BUT MOSTLY ON THE SCALE OF
A FEW DEGREES.
THIS CHANGE IN FLOW WILL OFFER A WEAK COOLING TREND FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. MORE NOTABLE COOLING LOOKS TO ARRIVE AS ANOTHER,
DEEPER TROUGH BUILDS. OUR FRIENDS IN OREGON MAY SEE SOME RAIN FROM
THIS THROUGH, WHILE OUR CURRENT CHANCES SEEM TO BE LIMITED TO A
COASTAL DRIZZLE SESSION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 938 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF IFR CONDITIONS AT HAF, MRY, AND SNS. LAMP AND MOS
GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST CIGS IN THE IFR-MVFR VICINITY ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG
WILL DEVELOP BUT IF THE MARINE LAYER IS ABLE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT THEN
COASTAL FOG WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BREEZIER ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT MVFR-IFR CIGS
REACH SFO OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 12-18Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWING RH VALUES LESS THAN 90% AT SFO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HREF GUIDANCE HAS ADDITIONALLY BACKED OFF
OF STRATUS EXTENDING INTO THE SF BAY AND VICINITY OF SFO WITH THE
00Z RUN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WAS ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A FEW IN THE TAF BUT NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO DEVELOP. WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE
MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 900-1000 FT WITH STRATUS EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH LAMP GUIDANCE LEANING HARDER ON
THIS THAN MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, KEPT LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE TAF
BUT DID NOT PUT FOG IN YET. EXPECTING STRATUS COVERAGE TO REDUCE BY
LATE MORNING WITH STRATUS RETURNING LATE TOMORROW EVENING/TOMORROW
NIGHT. CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MVFR TOMORROW NIGHT AS A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER RETURNS. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING
THE DAY BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN DURING THE NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDE
BELOW 10 FEET AS WINDS DECREASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BUILDING
SEAS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND GALE FORCE GUSTS RETURN
STARTING MID WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL COME INTO EFFECT AT 5 AM TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
AND RIP CURRENTS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST, WITH PERIODS OF 18 TO 20 SECONDS AND A HEIGHT OF
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULT
IN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES, POTENTIALLY DEADLY WAVES WHICH
SURGE MUCH FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED AND SWEEP UNAWARE
BEACHGOERS INTO THE OCEAN, AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THAT CAN SWEEP
THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN! INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY FROM THE WATER.
OBSERVE THE WAVES FOR 20 MINUTES BEFORE MOVING CLOSER. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE, AND IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, SWIM
PARALLEL TO THE COAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT, AND THEN AT AN ANGLE
TO SHORE.
DIALH
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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