311
FXUS66 KMTR 011113
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
413 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1144 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT H50 HEIGHT INCREASE THOUGH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THICKNESS VALUES. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS PRIMARILY
COMPRESSED TO COASTAL AREAS WITH STRATUS LIFTING BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY DIURNAL
ONSHORE FLOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST BAY HILLS AND SALINAS
VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING MARINE LAYER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL MAKE FARTHER PROGRESS INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1144 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN ON TUESDAY
WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE'S ALSO A CHANCE OF
COASTAL DRIZZLE WITH THE EXPANDING MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT POSITION
AND TIMING OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE'LL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE NO
IMPACTFUL OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 413 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR-LIFR
STRATUS AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF MONTEREY BAY AND PARTS OF THE BIG
SUR COAST, EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PERHAPS MAKE ITS WAY UP THE
SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT
HAF HAS DIMINISHED, AND HAVE CONVERTED THE PREVAILING STRATUS LINE
TO A TEMPO. STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS
WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN EXPANDING MARINE LAYER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO MAKE IT FARTHER INLAND THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, STRONG INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS WILL FLOW
THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE, BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PLACING THE
STRATUS DECK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL, MAKING THE PRESENCE
AND TIMING OF STRATUS IMPACTS UNCERTAIN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
STRATUS IMPACTS AT OAK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... LIFR STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT STRATUS IS LIKELY WITH SOME MVFR-IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS
THE MARINE LAYER EXPANDS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET AS WINDS DECREASE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE BUILDING SEAS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND GALE
FORCE GUSTS RETURN STARTING MID WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 5 AM
TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAUSED BY A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL. ON
THE BUOYS, THIS SWELL IS BEING MASKED BY STRONGER NORTHWEST SWELL
WAVES, BUT CAREFUL ANALYSIS OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM AT THE POINT
REYES AND POINT SUR BUOYS REVEALS A SOUTHWEST SWELL AROUND 1 TO 2
FEET HIGH WITH A PERIOD OF 20 SECONDS. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
RESULT IN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES, POTENTIALLY DEADLY
WAVES WHICH SURGE MUCH FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED AND
SWEEP UNAWARE BEACHGOERS INTO THE OCEAN, AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
THAT CAN SWEEP THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM THE WATER. OBSERVE THE WAVES FOR 20 MINUTES BEFORE MOVING
CLOSER. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE, AND IF CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT, SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT, AND
THEN AT AN ANGLE TO SHORE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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