623
FXUS66 KMTR 011847
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1147 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1144 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT H50 HEIGHT INCREASE THOUGH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THICKNESS VALUES. THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS PRIMARILY
COMPRESSED TO COASTAL AREAS WITH STRATUS LIFTING BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY DIURNAL
ONSHORE FLOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST BAY HILLS AND SALINAS
VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING MARINE LAYER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL MAKE FARTHER PROGRESS INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1144 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN ON TUESDAY
WITH SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE'S ALSO A CHANCE OF
COASTAL DRIZZLE WITH THE EXPANDING MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT POSITION
AND TIMING OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE'LL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE NO
IMPACTFUL OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
WIDESPREAD GENTLE TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. FOLLOWING THE GENERAL DIURNAL PATTERN, MAX WIND SPEEDS
(~10-15KT) ACROSS OUR REGION WILL OCCUR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
WILL EASE BY THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS TO ~1000 FT
OVERNIGHT. LVK WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT ESCAPES THE STRATUS
INTRUSION MEANWHILE COASTAL SITES WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT CLOUD COVER EROSION MID TO
LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS DOMINATE. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE BAY LATE TONIGHT
AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OAK
FIRST ~11Z BEFORE FILLING IN OVER SFO ~14Z. STRATUS MAY COME A BIT
EARLIER, BUT LEANED ON A LATER TIME DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR, RRFS, HREF) ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR MVFR
CEILINGS, THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO GO BELOW 1000
FEET. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE IFR CEILINGS SO DECIDED TO KEEP IT MVFR
AT THIS TIME. THE STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
(17/18Z) AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE COASTAL
STRATUS DECK MOVES ONSHORE EARLY EVENING FOR MRY AND OVERNIGHT FOR
SNS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOLLOWED BY IFR CEILINGS
(~OVC008) AND MVFR VISIBILITIES (5SM). CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUN COMES OUT AND WINDS INCREASE,
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW SCATTERED DECKS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
WINDS HAVE REDUCED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH ,MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET AS WINDS
DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BUILDING SEAS, STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS, AND GALE FORCE GUSTS RETURN STARTING MID WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 5 AM
TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAUSED BY A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL. ON
THE BUOYS, THIS SWELL IS BEING MASKED BY STRONGER NORTHWEST SWELL
WAVES, BUT CAREFUL ANALYSIS OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM AT THE POINT
REYES AND POINT SUR BUOYS REVEALS A SOUTHWEST SWELL AROUND 1 TO 2
FEET HIGH WITH A PERIOD OF 20 SECONDS. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
RESULT IN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES, POTENTIALLY DEADLY
WAVES WHICH SURGE MUCH FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED AND
SWEEP UNAWARE BEACHGOERS INTO THE OCEAN, AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
THAT CAN SWEEP THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM THE WATER. OBSERVE THE WAVES FOR 20 MINUTES BEFORE MOVING
CLOSER. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE, AND IF CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT, SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT, AND
THEN AT AN ANGLE TO SHORE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...MURDOCK
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