919
FXUS66 KMTR 011933
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1233 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
- LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TODAY WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION,
BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS LATER
THIS EVENING AND THEN DIVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAVE US CAUGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE ROUGH ON TUESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER. THE MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 800-1000FEET TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING STRATUS
TO THE COASTS AND SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WHERE THE MARINE LAYER
OCCURS, THE LOW THE 50S TO MID 50S FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS, AND IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE THERMAL BELT. TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALTER SOME DUE TO THE PATTERN SHIFT. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AND AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN, THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OR
SAN FRANCISCO BAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1232 PM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL MIDWEEK LEAVING US WITH
ONSHORE FLOW, STRATUS AND PERHAPS PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG AT NIGHT,
AND WARMER INTERIOR VALLEY AND COOLER COASTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WHILE THIS OCCURS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND THEN INTO THE PACNW BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS, OUR PATTERN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP. DEPENDING ON WHERE IT GOES WILL
DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF WEATHER. RIGHT NOW ENSEMBLES FAVOR A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST, WHICH SUPPORTS THE COOLER WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
WIDESPREAD GENTLE TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. FOLLOWING THE GENERAL DIURNAL PATTERN, MAX WIND SPEEDS
(~10-15KT) ACROSS OUR REGION WILL OCCUR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
WILL EASE BY THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS TO ~1000 FT
OVERNIGHT. LVK WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT ESCAPES THE STRATUS
INTRUSION MEANWHILE COASTAL SITES WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT CLOUD COVER EROSION MID TO
LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS DOMINATE. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE BAY LATE TONIGHT
AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OAK
FIRST ~11Z BEFORE FILLING IN OVER SFO ~14Z. STRATUS MAY COME A BIT
EARLIER, BUT LEANED ON A LATER TIME DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (HRRR, RRFS, HREF) ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR MVFR
CEILINGS, THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO GO BELOW 1000
FEET. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE IFR CEILINGS SO DECIDED TO KEEP IT MVFR
AT THIS TIME. THE STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
(17/18Z) AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE COASTAL
STRATUS DECK MOVES ONSHORE EARLY EVENING FOR MRY AND OVERNIGHT FOR
SNS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOLLOWED BY IFR CEILINGS
(~OVC008) AND MVFR VISIBILITIES (5SM). CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUN COMES OUT AND WINDS INCREASE,
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW SCATTERED DECKS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
WINDS HAVE REDUCED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH ,MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET AS WINDS
DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BUILDING SEAS, STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS, AND GALE FORCE GUSTS RETURN STARTING MID WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 5 AM
TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAUSED BY A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL. ON
THE BUOYS, THIS SWELL IS BEING MASKED BY STRONGER NORTHWEST SWELL
WAVES, BUT CAREFUL ANALYSIS OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM AT THE POINT
REYES AND POINT SUR BUOYS REVEALS A SOUTHWEST SWELL AROUND 1 TO 2
FEET HIGH WITH A PERIOD OF 20 SECONDS. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
RESULT IN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES, POTENTIALLY DEADLY
WAVES WHICH SURGE MUCH FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED AND
SWEEP UNAWARE BEACHGOERS INTO THE OCEAN, AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
THAT CAN SWEEP THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM THE WATER. OBSERVE THE WAVES FOR 20 MINUTES BEFORE MOVING
CLOSER. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE, AND IF CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT, SWIM PARALLEL TO THE COAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT, AND
THEN AT AN ANGLE TO SHORE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...MURDOCK
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