516
FXUS66 KMTR 030503
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1003 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
- SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK
- NOTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 157 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
IT'S ONLY THE SECOND DAY INTO JUNE AND WE'RE SEEING CLASSIC JUNE
GLOOM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. SOLID
INTRUSION OF MORNING STRATUS ROLLED BACK TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE, INLAND AREAS THAT FELT
THE MARINE INFLUENCE THIS MORNING ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO REBOUND
TEMP WISE. DID AN AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN
FOR INLAND VALLEYS. COASTAL AREAS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH COOL AND LINGERING CLOUDS.
WHILE WE'LL STILL SEEM A MARINE LAYER INTRUSION, ESPECIALLY EARLY
TONIGHT, THE FOOT PRINT FOR STRATUS WEDNESDAY AM WILL BE DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, WE'LL SEE N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS INCREASE. THEREFORE, THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE MORE BROKEN UP WEDNESDAY AM. BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO LEAD
TO LITTLE TO NO DENSE FOG.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM UP A LITTLE BIT OVER TUESDAY'S
TEMPS, BUT STILL BE TEMPERED BY ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME MARINE
LAYER INFLUENCE. 60S/70S COAST AND BAYS WITH 80S/MID 90S INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 157 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
MARINE LAYER STILL LINGERS, BUT WARMING AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL
CONTINUE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND OF AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES.
A NOTABLE SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BRING A MARKED
CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL WEATHER WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE A
DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP UPPER LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SWING INTO THE PACNW. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO CA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NIGHT/MORNING
MARINE LAYER WILL REFORM WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE. IN FACT, LONGER
RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AS A FEW SHOWERS BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MAKING STRATUS HARDER TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE BUT
THE GENERAL TREND OF STRATUS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND SF
BAY CONTINUES. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL REACH STS AND APC.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STRATUS WILL FILTER INTO THE SF BAY AND
IMPACT OAK BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A "DONUT HOLE"
AROUND SFO, KEEPING IT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MRY AND SNS WITH STRATUS ALREADY
PRESENT AT BOTH SITES. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BUT
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 2-4SM. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO CALL FOR FOG
ALONG THE SF BAY SHORELINE AND MONTEREY PENINSULA BUT THIS IS A
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THOSE UNDERTAKEN BY THE MOS AND
LAMP. GIVEN THE HIGHER MARINE LAYER, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT BUT WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED. SFO MAY SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. GUIDANCE SHOWS A "DONUT HOLE" OVER SFO WITH
STRATUS ON ALL SIDES OF THE AIRPORT BUT NOT OVER IT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LOW CHANCE (< 30%) OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 10-13Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY TONIGHT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT SFO.
CIGS CLEAR BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS GRADUALLY
LOWER AND BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 2-3SM.
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING FOG GIVEN THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER BUT THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CIGS CLEAR MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE MVFR-IFR CIGS RETURN DURING
THE EVENING. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS COASTAL JET REGIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
BUILD WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 10 TO 14 FEET EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS EASE HEADING
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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