051
FXUS66 KMTR 030645
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1145 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
- BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
- NOTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1145 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE EFFECTS OF A PROGRESSIVE, SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO
TRANSECT OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT ARE ALREADY BEING FELT OVER
THE NORTH BAY WITH DRIER AIR MIXING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND LIKELY
TO HOLD OFF A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PUSH INTO SOME OF THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHERE THE MARINE LAYER DOES MAKE INROADS TONIGHT, WE'LL SEE
CLEARING A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY. WHILE CLEARING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS, SO DROPPED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM NBM FOR MOST OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE, AND MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED FURTHER BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER INLAND THAN TUESDAY,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE TEMPS WILL JUMP INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GRADIENT
FORCING BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED FOR STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW AREA WIDE, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED
VALLEYS. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR THE MARINE LAYER
WILL PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A DRIER
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND EASING WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE MARINE LAYER'S INLAND PROGRESS
DESPITE THE MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING JUST OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1140 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY SUBTLE VARIATIONS
IN DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND. WE BEGIN
FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PEAK IN THE LOW
20S(C) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ARE DOWN TO AROUND 14C-16C FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL UNIMPACTFUL LIGHT
RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THERE IS POOR CONSENSUS IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EVOLVES THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC TROUGHING PERSISTING BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MAKING STRATUS HARDER TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE BUT
THE GENERAL TREND OF STRATUS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND SF
BAY CONTINUES. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL REACH STS AND APC.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STRATUS WILL FILTER INTO THE SF BAY AND
IMPACT OAK BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A "DONUT HOLE"
AROUND SFO, KEEPING IT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MRY AND SNS WITH STRATUS ALREADY
PRESENT AT BOTH SITES. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BUT
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 2-4SM. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO CALL FOR FOG
ALONG THE SF BAY SHORELINE AND MONTEREY PENINSULA BUT THIS IS A
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THOSE UNDERTAKEN BY THE MOS AND
LAMP. GIVEN THE HIGHER MARINE LAYER, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT BUT WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED. SFO MAY SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. GUIDANCE SHOWS A "DONUT HOLE" OVER SFO WITH
STRATUS ON ALL SIDES OF THE AIRPORT BUT NOT OVER IT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT WITH LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LOW CHANCE (< 30%) OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 10-13Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY TONIGHT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT SFO.
CIGS CLEAR BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS GRADUALLY
LOWER AND BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 2-3SM.
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING FOG GIVEN THE DEEPER MARINE LAYER BUT THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CIGS CLEAR MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE MVFR-IFR CIGS RETURN DURING
THE EVENING. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS COASTAL JET REGIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
BUILD WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 10 TO 14 FEET EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS EASE HEADING
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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