076
FXUS66 KMTR 031826
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1126 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
- BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
- NOTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
MUCH LESS STRATUS THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO THANKS LARGELY IN
PART TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AN INCREASING N-S GRADIENT.
AS NOTED BELOW, MADE SOME FURTHER REFINEMENTS ON TODAY'S MAX
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY FOR
INLAND VALLEYS 3 TO 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, THE MORE NOTEWORTHY WEATHER IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE
WINDS. THE INCREASING N-S GRADIENT WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WATERS, ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND INLAND
VALLEYS/PASSES. PEAK WINDS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE WINDIEST
LOCATIONS.
MM
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1145 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE EFFECTS OF A PROGRESSIVE, SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO
TRANSECT OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT ARE ALREADY BEING FELT OVER
THE NORTH BAY WITH DRIER AIR MIXING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND LIKELY
TO HOLD OFF A DEEPER MARINE LAYER PUSH INTO SOME OF THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHERE THE MARINE LAYER DOES MAKE INROADS TONIGHT, WE'LL SEE
CLEARING A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY. WHILE CLEARING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS, SO DROPPED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM NBM FOR MOST OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE, AND MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED FURTHER BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER INLAND THAN TUESDAY,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE TEMPS WILL JUMP INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GRADIENT
FORCING BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED FOR STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW AREA WIDE, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED
VALLEYS. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR THE MARINE LAYER
WILL PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A DRIER
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND EASING WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE MARINE LAYER'S INLAND PROGRESS
DESPITE THE MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING JUST OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1140 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY SUBTLE VARIATIONS
IN DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND. WE BEGIN
FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS PEAK IN THE LOW
20S(C) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ARE DOWN TO AROUND 14C-16C FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME POTENTIAL UNIMPACTFUL LIGHT
RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THERE IS POOR CONSENSUS IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EVOLVES THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC TROUGHING PERSISTING BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HAF AND SFO SEEING MUCH STRONGER WINDS BUILDING IN
THE MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT, ASIDE FROM HAF
AND SFO WHICH STAY BREEZY UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. CIGS WILL STRUGGLE
TO RETURN TONIGHT, BUT LOOK TO AFFECT HAF AND THE MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LOOK TO AFFECT THE SF BAY
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. GIGS
LOOK TO LIFT AND BEGINS TO ERODE AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRONG WEST WINDS BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 38 KTS FROM THE MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE REDUCING BACK DOWN TO 24 KT GUSTS. WINDS REDUCE FURTHER
INTO THE NIGHT, BECOMING MORE MODERATE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL
PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT, BUT DON'T LOOK TO FILL. THIS CLOUD
COVER ERODES INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BREEZY WINDS BUILD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR AND BREEZY WINDS LAST INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND MFVR/IFR CIGS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. WINDS
CIGS LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, WITH FAIR CHANCES OF MIST SLIGHTLY
AFFECTING VISIBILITIES. CIGS LOOK TO LIFT AND ERODE LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THAT AFTERNOON AS MODERATE WINDS BUILD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE
COASTAL JET REGIONS. SEAS BUILD THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING ROUGH
TOMORROW AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page