489
FXUS66 KMTR 032359
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
459 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
- BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
- NOTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 152 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WHAT A CONTRAST FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY. WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE
BLANKETS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER
N-S AND DISSIPATING FRONT HELPED TO GET RID OF THE COASTAL
STRATUS. INCREASED SUNSHINE AND LACK OF NATURAL A/C AIDED IN
GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
24 HOUR TRENDS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH MANY SONOMA CO SITES
10-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...STRATUS WAY OFFSHORE WILL INCH
CLOSER WITH ADDITIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. NOT
EXPECTING A FULL ON MARINE LAYER PUSH, BUT PATCHY STRATUS. MOST
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE SF PENINSULA COAST AND MONTEREY BAY
REGION. FOR THURSDAY, AM CLOUDS WILL FADE QUICKLY LEADING TO
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE
UPWARDS BY A FEW DEGREES. FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NO
ISSUES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 152 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LITTLE BIT OF RINSE AND REPEAT
WITH SOME PATCHY COASTAL MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY: 60S TO NEAR
80 COAST/BAYS AND 80S TO MID 90S INLAND.
STILL LOOKING AT A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY IN
THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT PACNW AND ULTIMATELY CA.
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS, DEEPER MARINE LAYER, COLDER 850MB TEMPS WILL
YIELD A DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD - ROUGHLY 5-10 DEG
FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. A MORE SUBTLE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS WITH COASTAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. LONGER RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN
20% AT THIS POINT. IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WON'T BE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR WITH A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL SPREAD
ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SF BAY SHORELINE TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT IT WILL REACH THE NORTH BAY AND INTERIOR
BAY AREA AIRPORTS. STRATUS LOOKS TO REACH OAK AND SFO BY 08-10Z WITH
AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS EXPECTED FOR HAF, MRY, AND SNS. NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT GUSTS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 30 KNOTS. STRATUS LOOKS TO REACH SFO AROUND 09Z AND WILL CLEAR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT SFO WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 05/06Z WITH CLEARING OCCURRING
LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING FOG TONIGHT BUT WE MAY SEE TEMPORARY
DECREASES IN VISIBILITY, PARTICULARLY IF A LOWER CLOUD CEILING IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS AND THE COASTAL JET REGIONS TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SEAS BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING ROUGH TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY
N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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