002
FXUS66 KMTR 040755
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1255 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
- BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- NOTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1255 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE I.E. 500 MB HEIGHT 589
DECAMETERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY 6.7 MB ACV-SFO AND ONSHORE 3.4
MB SFO-SAC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH VARIES FROM 1000 FEET TO LOCALLY 2000 FEET.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ARE PRODUCING
GUSTY WIND FLOW TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH'S LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A VARYING FOCUS OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS.
WITH EARLY JUNE SOLAR INPUT AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOWER
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH THE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COASTSIDE TO THE 80S AND 90S FAR INLAND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1255 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
WITH STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FRIDAY,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST TO
HOTTEST INLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S AND 90S. ON SATURDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BEGIN TO TREND LOWER WITH INLAND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONAL COOLING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LOWER DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH 70S WELL INLAND EXCEPT IN THE
80S SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RECENT GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A TROUGH ARRIVING WITH SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A STRONG LATE SEASON MERIDIONAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT,
ONGOING NEGATIVE (COOL) PHASE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION AND MOISTURE
TAP BACK TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC, IT'LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF E.G.
THE RECENTLY WETTER SOLUTION GFS VERIFIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
STRATUS IS RETURNING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS REACHING HAF,
MRY, SNS, OAK, AND SFO WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IT REACHING STS AND
APC. LARGELY EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CIGS DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY WINDS RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRATUS TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE NOT IN A CLEAR CONSENSUS AS TO EITHER HOW
EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE AND THE GENERAL TIMING. FOR RIGHT NOW, HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG THE COAST
BUT IT MAY POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE SF BAY AS WELL.
VICINITY OF SFO...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) THROUGH LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT GUSTS PEAKS WILL PEAK LOWER THAN THEY DID
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. A BAND OF STRATUS WAS ABLE
TO PUSH THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP THIS EVENING AND BRING IFR
CONDITIONS TO SFO. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS AND MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT SFO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT MINOR REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING IS LOW. GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HAVE A CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT'S STRATUS. THE EARLIEST
LIKELY RETURN OF STRATUS WOULD BE FROM 03-06Z SO HAVE STARTED
HEDGING TOWARDS THAT IN THE TAF.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR GALE TO FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL JET
REGIONS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN
10 TO 15 FEET CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS DECREASE AND
SEAS ABATE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY
N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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