140
FXUS66 KMTR 042103
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
203 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
- BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- MILD TO HOT CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
- NOTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT STATEMENT IS THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA WHERE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUMP UP AGAINST THE
TERRAIN. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING RATHER WINDY ACROSS
THE REGION. TODAY IS LESS WINDY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT ONSHORE
FLOW IS STILL OCCURING. KSFO IS REGISTERING WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. PEEKING AT THE 24 HOUR TREND SHOWS COASTAL AREAS
ARE GENERALLY COOLER WHILE FAR INTERIOR ARE WARMER, CLEAR SIGN OF
ONSHORE FLOW.
TONIGHT: ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A PARTIAL MIXED MARINE LAYER. HI-RES
GUIDANCE PAINTS A PICTURE OF PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND
LOCALLY INLAND WITH THE BIGGEST COVERAGE OVER THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. ALMOST A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING.
FRIDAY: ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
PUSH. OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S AGAIN. FRIDAY WILL END OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE BUNCH, BUT RELIEF AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
HEATRISK VALUES IN CHECK. ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS REACH
THE MODERATE CATEGORY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 150 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026 (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY)
WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THAT
IS STILL ON TRACK. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR THE GULF OF AK WILL
MOVE EASTWARD BRING LOWER H5 AND COLDER 850MB TEMP DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
60S/MID 70S COAST/BAYS AND 70S TO MID 80S INTERIOR. THE DROPPING
HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO BRING A MORE DEFINED MARINE LAYER WITH
NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS TOO. LASTLY, THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
BRING A SOLID PUSH OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS/GAPS/PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE GET ANOTHER SECONDARY TRAILING SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TRAILING SYSTEM WITH SOME KEEPING
THE LOW WAY NORTH AND OTHERS DROPPING IT OVER CA. CLUSTERS ALSO
REFLECTS THE UNCERTAINTY WITH MORE MEMBERS LEANING TOWARD A MORE
SOUTHERLY PUSH. AS SUCH, WE STILL HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE
WATERS/COAST/BAY AREA NORTHWARD. EVEN IF SHOWERS DEVELOP NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TOTALS.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AS THE LAST BIT OF STRATUS CLEARS FROM THE
COASTLINE. CLEAR SKIES AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES (GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST BUT LOCALLY DRIVEN) DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
COUPLE OF SITES EXPERIENCING STRONG GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS.
COASTAL SITES WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT
WITH IFR-MVFR CEILINGS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL BE AT HAF SO, DECIDED TO LEAVE IT AS FEW-
SCT015 BEGINNING TONIGHT ~10PM PDT. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL AIRMASS OFF
THE COAST REMAINS DRY WITH SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING A WIDE GAP IN
CLOUD COVERAGE TO THE WEST.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP
TO MODERATE STRENGTH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
20KTS WILL ALSO BEGIN BY THEN AND PERSIST UNTIL ~9PM PDT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO GENTLE BREEZES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO MODERATE STRENGTH BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...NW TO W MODERATE WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF SFO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH TO A
LIGHT BREEZE (~6KTS) A BIT EARLIER THAN SFO AND BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ALIGNS WITH SFO AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STRATUS
DECK RETURNS AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME ~1000
FEET DEEP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING BORDERLINE IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AT
MRY AROUND 9PM PDT AND IFR CEILINGS AT SNS AROUND MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS AS THE
MARINE LAYER BEGINS TO ERODE. ONSHORE GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG
THE COASTAL JET REGIONS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW TO BECOME ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FOR THE INNER
AND OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY
AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AND
SEAS ABATE TO BECOME MODERATE.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES
10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...SARMENT
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