841
FXUS66 KMTR 050043
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
543 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
- BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- MILD TO HOT CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
- NOTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT STATEMENT IS THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA WHERE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUMP UP AGAINST THE
TERRAIN. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ENDED UP BEING RATHER WINDY ACROSS
THE REGION. TODAY IS LESS WINDY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT ONSHORE
FLOW IS STILL OCCURING. KSFO IS REGISTERING WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. PEEKING AT THE 24 HOUR TREND SHOWS COASTAL AREAS
ARE GENERALLY COOLER WHILE FAR INTERIOR ARE WARMER, CLEAR SIGN OF
ONSHORE FLOW.
TONIGHT: ANOTHER NIGHT WITH A PARTIAL MIXED MARINE LAYER. HI-RES
GUIDANCE PAINTS A PICTURE OF PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND
LOCALLY INLAND WITH THE BIGGEST COVERAGE OVER THE MONTEREY BAY
REGION. ALMOST A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING.
FRIDAY: ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
PUSH. OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 80S AND 90S AGAIN. FRIDAY WILL END OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE BUNCH, BUT RELIEF AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
HEATRISK VALUES IN CHECK. ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS REACH
THE MODERATE CATEGORY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 150 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026 (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY)
WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THAT
IS STILL ON TRACK. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR THE GULF OF AK WILL
MOVE EASTWARD BRING LOWER H5 AND COLDER 850MB TEMP DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
60S/MID 70S COAST/BAYS AND 70S TO MID 80S INTERIOR. THE DROPPING
HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO BRING A MORE DEFINED MARINE LAYER WITH
NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS TOO. LASTLY, THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
BRING A SOLID PUSH OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS/GAPS/PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE GET ANOTHER SECONDARY TRAILING SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TRAILING SYSTEM WITH SOME KEEPING
THE LOW WAY NORTH AND OTHERS DROPPING IT OVER CA. CLUSTERS ALSO
REFLECTS THE UNCERTAINTY WITH MORE MEMBERS LEANING TOWARD A MORE
SOUTHERLY PUSH. AS SUCH, WE STILL HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE
WATERS/COAST/BAY AREA NORTHWARD. EVEN IF SHOWERS DEVELOP NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TOTALS.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS. ONLY CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR
KMRY AND POSSIBLY KHAF UNDER THIS PATTERN.
VICINITY OF SFO...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, EASING
AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR FORECAST FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW CIGS FORECAST FOR KMRY STARTING
AROUND 04Z THROUGH ~16Z FRIDAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
ALONG THE COASTAL JET REGIONS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY TO BECOME ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH FOR
THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH
TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO BECOME MODERATE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 242 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 3 AM FRIDAY THROUGH
9 AM SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST, WITH PERIODS OF 17 TO 18 SECONDS AND A HEIGHT OF AROUND 3
FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULT IN
INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES, POTENTIALLY DEADLY WAVES WHICH
SURGE MUCH FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED AND SWEEP UNAWARE
BEACHGOERS INTO THE OCEAN, AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THAT CAN SWEEP
THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE
OCEAN! INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY FROM THE WATER. OBSERVE
THE WAVES FOR 20 MINUTES BEFORE MOVING CLOSER. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD
IF POSSIBLE, AND IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, SWIM PARALLEL TO THE
COAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT, AND THEN AT AN ANGLE TO SHORE.
RGASS
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 3 AM PDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES
10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RGASS
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