467
FXUS66 KMTR 060912
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
212 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- COOLING TREND ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 212 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
STRONG THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT YESTERDAY WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH FURTHER COOLING OCCURING ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY IT WILL
FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS WARM/HOT INLAND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
FOR JUNE 6TH WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F INLAND. NEAREST THE COAST AND
BAYS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. FORECAST LOWS
ARE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S FOR TONIGHT. A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS E.G.
THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA HILLS AND THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF MONTEREY
AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY AND ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS CONTINUE,
AT 2 AM ACV-SFO IS 7.0 MB AND SFO-SAC IS 3.9 MB. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE COLD WATER
UPWELLING. DESPITE THE HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE AND RECENT STRATUS FREE
SKY, SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S, APPROX 1F TO 2F BELOW JUNE NORMALS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 212 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
EXPECT ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST WINDS, CLEAR, DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CONTINUATION OF COOLING ALOFT SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE COMFORTABLE INLAND WITH 70S TO 80F, NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAREST THE COAST AND BAYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S.
IN THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING JUNE 4TH AFD IT WAS MENTIONED THE
RECENT GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A TROUGH
ARRIVING WITH SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS REMAINS
TRUE, HOWEVER FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE SINCE CONTINUED
TO VARY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH OUR FORECAST AREA LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL/DRIZZLE W/R/T THIS INCOMING
SYSTEM. A PLUME OF WATER VAPOR IS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COUPLED
TO LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT, THE DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTED BY
A STRONG LATE SEASON MERIDIONAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE LOW/FRONT
ARE MOVING ALONG A GRADIENT OF WARMER TO COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES NEAR THE ONGOING NEGATIVE (COOL) PHASE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). WITH STRONG W-NW JET STREAM
WINDS BEHIND THIS LOW THE LOW/FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
TO LOWER LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO PRECIPITABLE
WATER ~ 1.50" PER RECENT GFS AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FOR < 0.10" MAINLY NORTH BAY TO PARTS OF THE EAST BAY,
BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIALLY GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE. RAIN IS NOT COMMON IN JUNE, IT'S NORMALLY
THE 4TH DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR IN OUR AREA. 15 YEARS AGO IN JUNE
2011 (4TH AND 28TH) E.G. PRODUCED MUCH ABOVE JUNE NORMAL RAINFALL
HERE, THUS IT CAN HAPPEN BUT IT'S A RARE DAY FOR RAIN IN JUNE. THE
PDO WAS NEGATIVE IN 2011 AND IT WAS LA NINA IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
AT THE VERY LEAST KEEP IN MIND THERE'S A CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE HERE
IN OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NIGHT-TIME ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY BENEFIT FROM RADIATIVE COOLING ABOVE CLOUD
TOPS FURTHERING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS TO OUR FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
RECENT FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN INDICATING A STRENGTHENING
500 MB RIDGE GENERALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A LATE WEEK
SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. THIS MEANS
THAT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT,
BUT SO WILL RECENTLY CHILLED (UPWELLING) SEA SURFACE TEMPS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF NATURAL AIR CONDITIONING AS AN OFFSET TO WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST NEAREST THE COAST.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FURTHER UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION. NW GUSTS
TO 39KT OCCURRING AT SFO WITH AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING ISSUED
EARLIER. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT KHAF AND
KMRY AND LIKELY SOON FOR KSNS PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NO CIGS TO IMPACT THE MAJOR TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
VICINITY OF SFO...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT THROUGH
ABOUT 08Z THEN ONLY SLOWLY EASING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT
BUT NO LOW CIGS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO BUT WITH LIGHTER WEST WINDS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW CIGS ALREADY REPORTED FOR KMRY AND
LIKELY TO FORM BY 08Z FOR KSNS. EARLY MIXING OUT BY 16Z SATURDAY
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS BEING THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG
THE COASTAL JET REGIONS OF POINT REYES AND POINT SUR TONIGHT,
EXPANDING TO ALL OF THE INNER WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT,
VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH ROUGH SEAS
FOR THE INNER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY
WITH MODERATE SEAS AND FRESH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 351 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY FOR
PACIFIC COAST BEACHES. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 17-18
SECONDS AT 3 FEET WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND SURFING CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED
BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SWEEP ACROSS THE
SHORELINE WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO THE SEA FROM ROCKS,
JETTIES, AND BEACHES. STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND
OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID
HAZARDOUS SURF AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR
LOCAL WEATHER, SURF AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY-SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-
60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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