773
FXUS66 KMTR 201839
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1139 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
- MINOR HEATRISK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HEATRISK CONCERNS RETURN BY
MIDWEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 858 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
RINSE AND REPEAT KINDA MORNING AROUND THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST WEATHER WISE TO START THE DAY. SATELLITE, CAMS, SOUNDINGS,
AND PROFILERS SHOW ANOTHER ROBUST MARINE LAYER BLANKETING THE
REGION. AUTOMATED GAGES ALSO MEASURED SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
DRIZZLE. ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ALREADY SHOW SOME THINNING OF THE
STRATUS DECK. THE OAK SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A LESS
DRAMATIC MARINE INVERSION. AS SUCH, EXPECT AN EARLIER CLEARING
TIME THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT, SOME COASTAL AREA EVEN HAVE A SHOT
AT SEEING THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
NO UPDATE NEEDED AS CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS TREND.
PLEASE HEED THE ADVICE IN THE BEACHES SECTION BELOW IF YOU'RE
GOING TO THE BEACH. WITH MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EXPECTED WE MAY
SEE A FEW MORE BEACHGOERS.
MM
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE PATTERN OVERALL WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TODAY AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVERHEAD. STRATUS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING WITHIN A MARINE LAYER AROUND 3000 FEET DEEP. DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL, RESULTING IN
LOCALLY SLICK ROADWAYS. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.
INLAND, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS MAY NOT FULLY ERODE IN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 15-30 MPH, STRONGEST IN
GAPS/PASSES.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COMPRESS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS. MARINE STRATUS WILL STILL FILL IN MOST
VALLEYS TONIGHT, BUT THE EXTENT SHOULD BE LOWER OVERALL. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND IN WIND-SHELTERED
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1245 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND ON SUNDAY
AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS FURTHER. DECREASING MARINE
INFLUENCE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN A WARMING
TREND, ESPECIALLY INLAND, WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 80S,
WITH A FEW READINGS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S AND
90S THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE HEATRISK AND INCREASED
HEAT IMPACTS, ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT COOLING LIMITS CONCERNS SOMEWHAT.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LOWER, BUT AT LEAST SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ALONG THE COAST/SF BAY SHORELINE COULD DEVELOP IF A WEAKER
ONSHORE OR OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN OCCURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THERE IS A LOW (AROUND 10%) CHANCE THAT THE MOISTURE AND
ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
OVERALL, THE CHANCE OF THIS SCENARIO OCCURING IS LOW, BUT IT
COULD HAVE A LARGE IMPACT. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES
NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS, THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR HAF WHERE IT WILL REMAIN MVFR
NO LATER THAN 21Z TODAY. THEREAFTER, VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE MODERATE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15KT.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 04-06Z SUNDAY BRINGING
LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS (BKN011-015) TO MOST TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER CLOUD BASES WILL DIP BELOW 1000 FEET, THOUGH THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE COMPRESSED TONIGHT (BETWEEN 1000-1500 FEET) COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY 16-18Z
SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH GENTLE SW BREEZES THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE BREEZES BY 21Z AND
CONTINUE INTO EVENING HOURS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF STRATUS
TONIGHT AS IT MAY ARRIVE SOME TIME BETWEEN 06-08Z. ONSHORE WINDS
ALSO EASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MARINE LAYER.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MODERATE WINDS AROUND 12-14 KT WILL REMAIN
MORE W TO NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THESE
WINDS EASE BY 06Z SUNDAY. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ROUGHLY
AN HOUR LATER THAN SFO (07Z SUNDAY) AND SCATTER OUT AT THE SAME TIME
(17Z SUNDAY).
VICINITY OF OAK AND SJC...VFR AS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 14 KT BY 21Z TODAY. HIGHER CHANCE FOR SJC TO EXPERIENCE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER WILL IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS TONIGHT AS EARLY AS 06Z AT OAK AND 10Z AT SJC WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 1200-1500 FEET. ONSHORE WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE BY SUNDAY LATE MORNING. SJC IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THEIR MVFR
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AS EARLY AS 16Z FOLLOWED BY OAK AT 18Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SNS EXPERIENCING MODERATE BREEZES AROUND 14 KT AND MRY REMAINING
GENTLE (~10 KT). THE COASTAL STRATUS DECK WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
BY 08Z SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING
AS THEY MAY ROLL IN AS EARLY AS 06Z. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO A COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER THEY WILL DIP INTO IFR STATUS, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE ON
THE BORDERLINE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INNER
AND OUTER WATERS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 15 TO 17 SECONDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND INCREASE TO 17 TO
19 SECONDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS ENERGETIC
STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY
FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT.
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN OTHER
WAVES, POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING
IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM
JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE
WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...TANGEN
LONG TERM....TANGEN
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...DM
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