468
FXUS66 KMTR 211754
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1054 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
- MODERATE HEATRISK CONCERNS RETURN MIDWEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1230 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STRATUS GRADUALLY EXPANDING BACK ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT IS LESS EXTENSIVE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT STRATUS TO FILL
IN ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS BY SUNRISE, THEN RETREAT
BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS
FURTHER TODAY AS UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
THE CLEARING EXPERIENCED SATURDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHICH
WILL WARM AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES ALONG SF BAY SHORELINE, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL PLACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST, WITH MID 70S TO 80S IN THE INTERIOR, AND
THE WARMEST SPOTS REACHING 90 DEGREES. EXPECT TYPICAL ONSHORE
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS 15-30 MPH,
STRONGEST IN GAPS/PASSES.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE AROUND 1000-1500 FEET DEEP TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS. THE MORE
COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND IN WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING
A RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, WITH A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF HEADING TO THE COAST,
STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE
ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK TO THE OCEAN! FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE BEACHES SECTION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1230 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSED
AND CONTINUE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, REACHING THEIR PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, HIGHS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE
WARM AND WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF WEDNESDAY'S READINGS. MARINE
INFLUENCE SHOULD LIMIT WARMING ALONG THE COAST AND BAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S, BUT THIS WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. ACROSS THE INTERIOR, HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S AND
90S. HOT TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY INLAND, WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK WITH INCREASED HEAT IMPACTS. THE
TREND STILL HOLDS FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THAT COVERAGE OF
MODERATE HEATRISK LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER,
HOT TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE A RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
AMONGST SENSITIVE POPULATIONS, INCLUDING CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY,
PREGNANT WOMEN, PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC ILLNESSES, AND PEOPLE WHO WORK
OR LIVE OUTDOORS WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS
MEANS THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY, BUT ANY
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS WEEK,
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY IN OUR AREA, BUT WINDS MAY
BECOME BREEZY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MARINE STRATUS BEGINNING TO ERODE TOWARD THE COAST AS EVIDENT IN
BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE-BASED OBSERVATIONS. WHILE MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT MOST TERMINALS, THERE IS MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CLEARING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR MOST
TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH CLEARING NEAR THE COAST A
LITTLE LATER. HAF MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL. LOWER CIGS RETURN AFTER
02Z MONDAY WITH LESS INLAND EXTENT THAN THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...MARINE STRATUS DECK AROUND 1000-1500 FT SHOULD
SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS SETTING IN AROUND 21Z AND
PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 00Z, BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN WITH A RETURN
TO NEAR 10 KTS BY AROUND 03/04Z. STRATUS MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND THE SAME TIME WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. BETTER CHANCE OF INTERMITTENT
BKN CIGS OCCURRING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SJC, BUT WILL
LIKELY LAST A LITTLE LONGER AT OAK WHERE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 21Z. NW/W WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 21Z TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS, MAINLY AT SJC. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1200FT RETURN TO
OAK 04/05Z, LOWERING TO AROUND 800FT AFTER 06Z WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN TO SJC CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WHETHER MARINE STRATUS WILL
SPREAD THAT FAR INLAND. ANY MARINE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
DECK AROUND 1200-1500FT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT SNS IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT MRY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY AFTERNOON CLEARING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST (MRY) BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN PUSHING INLAND
AFTER 02Z MON, BECOMING LOCALLY IFR AFTER 05Z MON. ONSHORE WINDS
5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE REMAINING INNER AND OUTER WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 15 TO 17 SECONDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND INCREASE TO 17 TO
19 SECONDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS ENERGETIC
STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY
FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT.
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN OTHER
WAVES, POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING
IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM
JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE
WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...TANGEN
LONG TERM....TANGEN
AVIATION...MANNING
MARINE...MANNING
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page