533
FXUS66 KMTR 220732
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1232 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- MINOR HEATRISK WITH BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
- WARMING TREND WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, PEAKING WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING, WITH
THE MARINE LAYER HOVERING AROUND 1200 TO 1500 FT. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE WARMING AND DRIER TREND CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S ALONG THE COAST, AND MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING HIGH
TEMPS AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH A POCKET OF
MODERATE HEATRISK POSSIBLE AROUND SAN JOSE.
THE MARINE LAYER, WHICH IS CURRENTLY AROUND 1200 TO 1500 FEET,
WILL BEGIN TO COMPRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECT STRATUS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LESS STRATUS BUILDING INLAND TONIGHT. THE
MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AND IN WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL
BRING A RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, WITH A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF HEADING TO THE
COAST, STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS,
BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE BEACHES
SECTION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WHILE THE WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY,
RIDGING HAS BEEN TEMPERED SLIGHTLY, AND PROJECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HIGHS
WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST, WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A FEW POCKETS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK ARE STILL POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL NEAR
SAN JOSE AGAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER FROM THEIR
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL BECOME MORE NOTED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SETTLES THE WESTERN US.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN WITH THE TROUGHING, AND DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE, PEAKING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BRINGING GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS RIDGELINES AND THROUGH GAPS AND
PASSES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO FAVORED TO BEGIN BY LATE
WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS QUITE A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING TRYING TO
CREEP BACK IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 921 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
IT'S VFR EXCEPT FOR STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ ALONG THE COASTLINE AND
LOCALLY INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER STRATUS
/MVFR-IFR/ INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS MIXES OUT
TO THE COASTLINE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COASTAL STRATUS REDEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ PREVAILS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING WITH MIX OUT TO VFR 19Z MONDAY. STRATUS /MVFR/
RETURNS MID MONDAY EVENING. WEST WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS BEGINNING 19Z MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
EASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID MONDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...FOR SJC AIRPORT VFR FOR THE EVENING,
THEN STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ OVERNIGHT THEN MIXES OUT TO VFR 19Z
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO MONDAY. FOR OAK AIRPORT
STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ PREVAILS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, MIXING
OUT TO VFR 19Z. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS /IFR/ PREVAILS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRATUS /IFR/ RETURNS MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 839 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS, RESULTING
IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. FOR OTHER INNER AND OUTER
WATER, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. LONG
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS WILL
INCREASE TO 17 TO 19 SECONDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ENERGETIC STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY
FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT.
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN OTHER WAVES,
POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN
PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM
JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE
WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SLAGLE
LONG TERM....SLAGLE
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...MALARKEY
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