146
FXUS66 KMTR 221754
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1054 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- MINOR HEATRISK WITH BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
- WARMING TREND WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, PEAKING WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING, WITH
THE MARINE LAYER HOVERING AROUND 1200 TO 1500 FT. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE WARMING AND DRIER TREND CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S ALONG THE COAST, AND MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING HIGH
TEMPS AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH A POCKET OF
MODERATE HEATRISK POSSIBLE AROUND SAN JOSE.
THE MARINE LAYER, WHICH IS CURRENTLY AROUND 1200 TO 1500 FEET,
WILL BEGIN TO COMPRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECT STRATUS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LESS STRATUS BUILDING INLAND TONIGHT. THE
MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AND IN WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL
BRING A RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, WITH A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF HEADING TO THE
COAST, STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS,
BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE BEACHES
SECTION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WHILE THE WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY,
RIDGING HAS BEEN TEMPERED SLIGHTLY, AND PROJECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HIGHS
WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST, WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. A FEW POCKETS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK ARE STILL POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL NEAR
SAN JOSE AGAIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER FROM THEIR
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL BECOME MORE NOTED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SETTLES THE WESTERN US.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN WITH THE TROUGHING, AND DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE, PEAKING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BRINGING GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS RIDGELINES AND THROUGH GAPS AND
PASSES. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO FAVORED TO BEGIN BY LATE
WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS QUITE A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN REGARDS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING TRYING TO
CREEP BACK IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
EROSION OF MARINE STRATUS TOWARD THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND NEARLY ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. MAIN EXCEPTION IS KHAF WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS MOVING INLAND AGAIN AFTER 01Z TUE
WITH EARLIER ONSET NEAR THE COAST AND LATER ONSET FARTHER INLAND.
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS IS LOWEST AT LVK WHERE THE THREAT HAS
BEEN COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP RATHER THAN PREVAILING. EXPECT
TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH TYPICAL INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BEGIN MOVING BACK IN AFTER 03Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO SET IN AGAIN AFTER 06Z. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN BY MIDDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. INCREASED CHANCE OF BKN
CIGS TO LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...WHILE LOW STRATUS IS CURRENTLY
PERSISTING AT OAK, IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 03Z TUE WITH IFR CIGS
FORECAST AGAIN AT OAK AFTER 06Z. NW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR SJC, W WINDS 5-15 KNOTS FOR OAK.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS ALREADY CLEARED SNS AND
SHOULD CLEAR MRY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE MARINE LAYER
CONTINUES TO ERODE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN AFTER 02Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH RESTRICTIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE
MORNING AGAIN TUESDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EXPANDING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL PERSISTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS WILL
INCREASE TO 17 TO 19 SECONDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ENERGETIC STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY
FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT.
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN OTHER WAVES,
POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN
PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM
JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE
WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SLAGLE
LONG TERM....SLAGLE
AVIATION...MANNING
MARINE...MANNING
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