136
FXUS66 KMTR 222204
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
304 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- MINOR HEATRISK WITH BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
- WARMING TREND WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, PEAKING WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 303 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
STATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE FOR ALL, BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE. THE WEST-NORTHWEST FEED OF STRATUS LOOKS TO
KEEP ALL BUT THE GOLDEN GATE STRATUS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS THAT STARTED THE DAY CLOUD-FREE ARE BUILDING INTO
THE 70S AND 80S, WITH TEMPERATURES THERE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. FOR THE INLAND AREAS THAT STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH CLOUD
COVER BUT CLEARED: TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS THAT REMAIN IN THE STRATUS LOOK TO STICK TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INLAND SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING, BUT
WILL NOT REACH AS FAR INLAND DUE TO THE THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSING
INTO THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
AREAS STAYING IN THE MID 50S.
THE REDUCTION OF MARINE INFLUENCE FROM THE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER
WILL CALL FOR THE INLAND AREAS TO CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COAST AND NEAR-COAST AREAS REMAIN COOL. INLAND
AREAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 80S WHILE THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 303 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO OFFER NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURES TO TUESDAY,
WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE MORE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION TRENDING
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY AFTER
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON, LEADING INTO A BREEZY EVENING WITH BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW.
A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A
RESURGENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER AND BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS. THE
INCREASED ON SHORE FLOW WILL KICK OFF A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY,
WITH SATURDAY SEEING THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST
WITH MOSTLY 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
EROSION OF MARINE STRATUS TOWARD THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND NEARLY ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. MAIN EXCEPTION IS KHAF WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS MOVING INLAND AGAIN AFTER 01Z TUE
WITH EARLIER ONSET NEAR THE COAST AND LATER ONSET FARTHER INLAND.
CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS IS LOWEST AT LVK WHERE THE THREAT HAS
BEEN COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP RATHER THAN PREVAILING. EXPECT
TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH TYPICAL INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO BEGIN MOVING BACK IN AFTER 03Z WITH IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO SET IN AGAIN AFTER 06Z. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN BY MIDDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. INCREASED CHANCE OF BKN
CIGS TO LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...WHILE LOW STRATUS IS CURRENTLY
PERSISTING AT OAK, IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 03Z TUE WITH IFR CIGS
FORECAST AGAIN AT OAK AFTER 06Z. NW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR SJC, W WINDS 5-15 KNOTS FOR OAK.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS ALREADY CLEARED SNS AND
SHOULD CLEAR MRY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE MARINE LAYER
CONTINUES TO ERODE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN AFTER 02Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH RESTRICTIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE
MORNING AGAIN TUESDAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EXPANDING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL PERSISTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS WILL
INCREASE TO 17 TO 19 SECONDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ENERGETIC STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY
FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT.
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN OTHER WAVES,
POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN
PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM
JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE
WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...MANNING
MARINE...MANNING
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