731
FXUS66 KMTR 231750
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1050 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES, PEAKING MIDWEEK, WITH MINOR HEATRISK
EXPECTED
- AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
SHORT TERM
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER IS ROUGHLY 1000 TO 1500 FT WITH STRATUS BUILDING
BACK INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS INLAND
PUSH THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COMPRESS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH A SLOW REDUCTION IN STRATUS AND A WARMING AND DRY
TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER WILL
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND IN WIND-SHELTERED
VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THE OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN IS
TRENDING WEAKER. AS A RESULT, THE THREAT OF MODERATE HEATRISK
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST BAY LOOKS TO HAVE
ENDED HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR INLAND AREAS, WHILE FAR
INTERIOR AREAS WILL REACH THE 90S. CONTINUED COOL ALONG WITH COAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH 70S FOR NEAR-
COAST AREAS.
WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL
BRING A RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, WITH A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF HEADING TO THE
COAST, STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS,
BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN! FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE BEACHES
SECTION.
LONG TERM
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SPOTS
SEEING THEIR AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA. THE COOLING TREND WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS
OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER AND
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL COULD ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE, PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40+
MPH ACROSS RIDGELINES AND THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS STILL FAVORED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THERE IS QUITE A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING TRYING TO CREEP BACK IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TOWARD THE COAST AND NEARLY
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE
EXCEPTION BEING KHAF WHERE LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, EASING THROUGH THE EVENING. SIMILAR CLOUD BASES
RETURNING TO MOST AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NW/W. A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN
BY 04Z WED AS MARINE STRATUS MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA, BECOMING
IFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID/LATE
MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. INCREASED CHANCE OF BKN
CIGS TO LINGER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...MARINE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AT OAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN
WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS EASE AND MVFR CLOUDS ROLL BACK IN
BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. OAK LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE 06-16Z WED TIMEFRAME. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS HAS ALREADY CLEARED AT SNS AND
IS FORECAST TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AT MRY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ONLY INTERMITTENT
SCATTERING TO MRY, SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON BOTH SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS. MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 01Z
WED, BECOMING IFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TYPICAL DIURNAL W/NW WINDS
5-15 KTS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO RESUME
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK, RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS WILL
INCREASE TO 17 TO 19 SECONDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ENERGETIC STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY
FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT.
SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN OTHER WAVES,
POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN
PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A
LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY FROM
JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE
WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SLAGLE
LONG TERM....SLAGLE
AVIATION...MANNING
MARINE...MANNING
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