450
FXUS66 KMTR 241109
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
409 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- WARMING PEAKS WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR HEATRISK
- AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
SHORT TERM
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS ROUGHLY 1000 TO 1500 FT WITH STRATUS
BUILDING BACK INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND PUSH THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COMPRESS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH A SLOW REDUCTION IN STRATUS, ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER WILL
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND IN WIND-SHELTERED
VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
SUBTLE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR INLAND AREAS, WHILE
FAR INTERIOR AREAS WILL REACH THE 90S. CONTINUED COOLER ALONG WITH
COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH 70S FOR
NEAR-COAST AREAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN US BY THURSDAY AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING THEIR AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA.
THE OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
IMPACTING THE PACIFIC COAST BEACHES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A HIGH RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT AND THE BEACHES DISCUSSION SECTION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
THE COOLING TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE PACNW AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY
4-8 DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY FOR INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE 60S AND INLAND
AREAS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. FURTHER COOLING CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. BY
SATURDAY MORNING, THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PATCHY DRIZZLE, PRIMARILY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND IS STILL FAVORED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS KEEP A
PREVAILING TROUGHING PATTERN LINGERING OVER THE WEST THAT MAY
LIMIT WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
IMPROVE A BIT AS COMPARED TO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOLDOWN.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS, PEAKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECTS GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS MAY
EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR WIND-PRONE AREAS AND
MOUNTAIN PASSES. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 409 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
EXTENSIVE STRATUS, GENERALLY MVFR-IFR EXCEPT LIFR AT STS, HAS COME
INTO THE VALLEYS WITH A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS
IMPACTS TO LVK SOMETIME THIS MORNING. STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS AND NOT AS
MUCH INLAND DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
VICINITY OF SFO... MVFR-IFR STRATUS SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, MIXING OUT AFTER SUNRISE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH STRATUS
RETURNING TO THE TERMINAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LEANING
TOWARDS MORE OF AN IFR STRATUS TONIGHT, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF OAK AND SJC... MVFR-IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT
OAK BEFORE THE SKIES FULLY CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO OAK TONIGHT,
WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... MVFR-IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT THE
TERMINALS, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE
REMOVED THE TEMPOS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THE STRATUS SHOULD RETREAT
BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS
SHOULD RETURN TO THE TERMINALS RATHER EARLY TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL RESUME ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 16 TO 18 SECONDS EMANATING
FROM ENERGETIC STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED,
SPECIFICALLY FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS
BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT. SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH
FARTHER THAN OTHER WAVES, POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY
SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP
CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY
FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE
BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER
INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
THE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10
NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SLAGLE
LONG TERM....SLAGLE
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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