121
FXUS66 KMTR 241911
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1211 PM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST TODAY
- AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE, AND A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS BEGIN THURSDAY, PEAKING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH MOUNTAIN PASSES GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50-60 MPH AND MARINE
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 PM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE FROM
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE SHOWING MANY COASTAL AREAS
STILL SOCKED IN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DID COMPRESS THE MARINE
LAYER A BIT, PREVENTING IT FROM STRETCHING AS FAR INLAND AS IT DID
TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG WAS REPORTED ACROSS MULTIPLE COASTAL SITES THIS
MORNING BUT VISIBILITY IS QUICKLY IMPROVING AS AN EDDY JUST OFF THE
COAST IS HELPING TO LIFT CLOUD BASES. FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES TODAY WON'T SEE MUCH CHANGE FROM TUESDAY'S
HIGHS, GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. FOR INTERIOR
AREAS, THE WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. TEMPS PEAK TODAY WITH MINOR HEATRISK
FOR THOSE WARMER SPOTS BEFORE A SLOW COOLING TREND BEGINS
THURSDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COMPRESSED TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY IMPACTS FOR COASTAL TERRAIN
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN
BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS LIKELY TO LIMIT INTERIOR WARMING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.
AROUND THE SAME TIME, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWEEP DOWN THE
CANADIAN COASTLINE, TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT OVER CALIFORNIA. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MARINE IMPACTS/DETAILS
FROM THE UPTICK IN WINDS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW
AND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LULL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WITH SNEAKER WAVES...NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK TO THE OCEAN! ADDITIONAL BEACH HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKENDED, PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 PM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO FALL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE NORTH. A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY COULD BRING ABOUT 40-50+ MPH WINDS FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
WIND-PRONE SPOTS, AND 30-35 MPH WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE IN FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND 50%+ MIN RH FOR EVERY LOCATION EXCEPT THE
VERY FAR INTERIOR SPOTS. DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS GIVEN A
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MARINE LAYER, AND CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE LIMITED DESPITE
THE STRONG WINDS GIVEN HOW HIGH THE HUMIDITY WILL BE, ALONG WITH
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. INTERIOR
SPOTS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 70S WITH 60S FOR MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS AND 50S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. COOLER WEATHER AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY,
BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD AND WINDS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LOWS TRUE DEPARTURE ON MONDAY,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO MOVE BACK IN BUT MAY FACE SOME
PUSH BACK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE IN FAVOR WITH A
TROUGHING PATTERN PREVAILING INTO EARLY WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A MINIMAL TO SLOW WARMING TREND COMPARED TO THE COOLER WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF
SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HAF WHERE IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL
LINGER. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWER
CEILINGS AND NOT AS MUCH INLAND DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THIS
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING BETWEEN 02Z AND
05Z. STRATUS WILL BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY, ALTHOUGH NOW LEANING MVFR. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER NORTH OF OAK.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. STRATUS WILL RETURN AT OAK 01-05Z,
CURRENTLY FAVORED TO BE IFR CEILINGS INSTEAD OF MVFR BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. STRATUS SHOULD MOVE INTO SJC OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR CEILINGS FAVORED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR MID TO LATE
MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL RESUME ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AT AROUND 16 TO 18 SECONDS EMANATING
FROM ENERGETIC STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CALIFORNIA COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED,
SPECIFICALLY FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK BEACH CONDITIONS
BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT. SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH
FARTHER THAN OTHER WAVES, POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY
SURPRISE AND RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP
CURRENTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY
FROM SHORE. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE
BEACH, AND AWAY FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER
INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
THE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10
NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ZUBER
LONG TERM....ZUBER
AVIATION...SLAGLE
MARINE...SLAGLE
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