565
FXUS66 KMTR 250701
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1201 AM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
- CONTINUED MILD AND DRY FOR THURSDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY
- AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE, AND A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, PEAKING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH MOUNTAIN PASSES GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50-60 MPH AND
MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
(THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COMPRESS INTO THIS MORNING
TO AROUND 800-1200FT, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS STRATUS INUNDATION
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG AGAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL TERRAIN.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN TODAY, WITH HEIGHTS
SLOWLY FALLING. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY, MAYBE 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE DECREASING
HEIGHTS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE NORTH.
WHILE THE LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE, AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
WEST COAST AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWEEPS DOWN THE CANADIAN
COASTLINE.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON,
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY COULD BRING
ABOUT 40-50+ MPH WINDS FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES AND WIND-PRONE SPOTS, AND
30-35 MPH WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SURGE IN FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND 50%+
MIN RH FOR EVERY LOCATION EXCEPT THE VERY FAR INTERIOR SPOTS. AS A
RESULT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED WITH EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH, LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THE LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IMPACTING THE PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WHILE THE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS HAS DECREASED, THEY COULD STILL OCCUR...NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF WORK WEEK BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE COOLER PATTERN WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DEEP MARINE LAYER LIMITING HEATING.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AND HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY, WITH 50S NEAR THE COAST AND
60S TO LOW 70S FURTHER INLAND. AGAIN, SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.
WHILE TROUGHING PATTERN IS LOOKING TO LINGER LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
US, A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE SLOWLY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE IN FAVOR
WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN PREVAILING INTO EARLY WEEK WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A MINIMAL TO SLOW WARMING TREND COMPARED TO THE COOLER
WEEKEND. LINGERING BREEZY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO TREND DOWN
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 923 PM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
ONSHORE BREEZES WILL USHER STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ INLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. STRATUS MIXES OUT TO THE COASTLINE WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. COASTAL STRATUS REDEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS /IFR/ PREVAILS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MIX OUT TO VFR 17Z THURSDAY. STRATUS /IFR/ RETURNS
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WEST WIND DECREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING THEN DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...FOR SJC AIRPORT VFR FOR THE EVENING,
THEN STRATUS /MVFR/ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THEN MIXES OUT TO VFR 17Z
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS DECREASING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THURSDAY MORNING THEN NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR OAK AIRPORT STRATUS /IFR/ PREVAILS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, MIXING OUT TO VFR 19Z. STRATUS /IFR/
RETURNS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ PREVAILS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRATUS /IFR/ REDEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 915 PM PDT WED JUN 24 2026
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL RESUME ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL
GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
POINT REYES. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10
NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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