439
FXUS66 KMTR 260025
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
525 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
- GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TODAY, INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH EAST-WEST MOUNTAIN PASSES AS HIGH AS 50+ MPH AND MARINE
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE, AND A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH AM DRIZZLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1233 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
THE MARINE LAYER MIXED OUT A BIT QUICKER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, BUT SATELLITE SHOWS IT STUBBORNLY PERSISTING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH BAY. TODAY IS A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS WEEK
TO A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THAT BEGINS FRIDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS, HIGHER IN WIND-PRONE
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WITH
COASTAL AREAS NOT WARMING MUCH UNDER A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
INTERIOR AREAS BENEFITING FROM SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS TROUGHING RETURNS. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL FRIDAY WITH THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENING CLOSER TO 2000-2500 FT, SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. AROUND THE SAME TIME, WINDS
WILL INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND
EAST- WEST PASSES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50+ MPH WITH MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH. A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING 4-10
DEGREES COMPARED TO THURSDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE NOT JUST FOR INLAND SPOTS, BUT ALSO FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE MARINE
SECTION BELOW AS WELL AS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR MOST ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1233 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS PEAK BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
DOWN INTO OREGON, TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FURTHER. ADDITIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER
USHERING IN WIDESPREAD COASTAL DRIZZLE AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
STRUGGLING TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOWER TREND TO THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. WHILE IT MEANDERS ALONG THE BORDERS OF
CA/NV/OR, HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR INTERIOR AREAS, GENERALLY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THINGS SHIFT A BIT SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STARTS TO MOVE
UP INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE. WITH THIS,
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COMPRESS A BIT EACH DAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
GENERAL MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR NEXT WEEK,
BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK TROUGHING PREVAILING
WHICH WOULD KEEP US A BIT COOLER. SHOULD THE LATTER PREVAIL, THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH MARINE HAZARDS POTENTIALLY
PREVAILING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
STRATUS IS ALL TUCKED IN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, WITH
INTERMITTENT CIGS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILL BACK
IN THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY MVFR,
LOCALLY IFR, CONDITIONS EXPECTED. INTERMITTENT CIGS ACROSS THE
BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL FILL IN THIS EVENING. INCREASED
ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT DIMINISHING AS LOW AS 8-10 KTS AFTER 12Z. CONFIDENCE
INCREASING IN BKN CIGS REMAINING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
COASTAL TAF SATES, INCLUDING MRY AND SFO.
VICINITY OF SFO...INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF CLOUDS FILLING INTO THE AREA
NEAR 04-06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (20-21Z). CONFIDENCE
INCREASING IN MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CIGS MAY CLEAR PARTIALLY, BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN IN THE
EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME GENERAL WIND PATTERN AS SFO, THOUGH
MODERATE WINDS REMAIN MORE NW-W WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT. SIMILAR
CLOUD PATTERN TO SFO WITH INCREASED CHANCE OF PREVAILING MVFR
CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
VICINITY OF OAK AND SJC...MODERATE WINDS (10-15 KT) REMAINING
FROM THE WEST AT OAK AND NW AT SJC, MAINTAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AT OAK. MVFR CEILINGS ROLL IN AROUND 05-07Z FRIDAY AT OAK AND
09-10Z FRIDAY AT SJC, THOUGH CURRENTLY HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF STRATUS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF CLEARING AT SJC LATE
FRIDAY MORNING, LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY CLEARING AT OAK.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ON THE BORDERLINE OF LOW END MVFR TO HIGH END
IFR AND MAY JUMP BETWEEN THE TWO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN SCATTER OUT AT SNS, LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SCATTER OUT AT MRY ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM PDT THU JUN 25 2026
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GALES DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY THE EXPOSED COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ZUBER
LONG TERM....ZUBER
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...MANNING
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