622
FXUS66 KMTR 261119
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
419 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH EAST-WEST MOUNTAIN
PASSES AS HIGH AS 50+ MPH AND MARINE IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE, AND A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH AM DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY
- BEACH HAZARDS RETURN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 110 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2026 (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
MARINE LAYER HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND FOR MANY COASTAL CITIES. IT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY TODAY WITH MOST OF THE
AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING CLOSER
TO 2000-2500 FT, SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA OF THE THE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ELEVATED WINDS OBSERVED YESTERDAY STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EAST-
WEST PASSES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50+ MPH WITH MANY OTHER LOCATIONS
GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES COOLDOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING 4-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DECENT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH AN EVEN DEEPER
MARINE LAYER USHERING IN WIDESPREAD COASTAL DRIZZLE AND POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/ EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOWER TREND TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. WHILE IT MEANDERS ALONG THE BORDERS OF
CA/NV/OR, HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR INTERIOR AREAS, GENERALLY 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE NOT JUST FOR INLAND SPOTS, BUT ALSO FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE MARINE SECTION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 110 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2026 (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY)
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WEAKENS
AND STARTS TO MOVE UP INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
INCREASE. WITH THIS, THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COMPRESS A BIT
EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING TEMPERATURES
HIGHER FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK
TROUGHING PREVAILING WHICH WOULD KEEP US A BIT COOLER. SHOULD THE
LATTER PREVAIL, THE COASTAL WATERS MAY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH MARINE HAZARDS
POTENTIALLY PREVAILING.
THE CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS RETURN FOR PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND AS LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS RETURN. MORE
INFORMATION BELOW IN BEACHES, BUT REMEMBER TO NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK TO THE OCEAN!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2026
GENERALLY MVFR STRATUS HAS FLOWED INTO THE SF BAY AREA AND THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION, DOWN INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY, WHILE THE NORTH
BAY AND INTERIOR EAST AND SOUTH BAYS REMAIN VFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
A CEILING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT LVK, WITH THE NOTE
THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE CURRENT
EXTENT OF STRATUS. WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY, STRATUS
CLEARING WILL BE LARGELY DELAYED AND LIMITED TO THE INTERIOR
REGIONS, WHILE COASTAL AND BAYSHORE TERMINALS REMAIN SOCKED IN OVER
THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTS RESUMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, IMPACTING MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF STS. COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, EXTENDING A LITTLE BEYOND THE END OF THE 24-
HOUR TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO... MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY SCATTERING
THIS AFTERNOON BEING RATHER BRIEF. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS PICKING UP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO REACH 35 KT OR ABOVE. DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON SOME CLEARING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF OAK AND SJC... MVFR STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY
AT OAK. AT SJC, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THE STRATUS DECK IS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL, BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT IT STAYS AT BAY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, WEST AT OAK AND
NORTHWEST AT SJC, WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING CLOSE TO OR AFTER THE END OF OAK'S EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD. DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT OAK OVERNIGHT.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... MVFR STRATUS PERSISTS AT MRY THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERING AT SNS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH STRATUS RETURNING TO SNS IN THE LATE EVENING
TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR STRATUS AND
DRIZZLE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GALES
DEVELOPING ACROSS COASTAL JET REGIONS AND THE EXPOSED COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 110 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL RETURNS TO THE COAST, CREATING AN INCREASED
RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE
ADVERTISED, SPECIFICALLY FOR MODERATE TO STEEPLY SLOPED BEACHES
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTH BAY, SAN MATEO, SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES. SNEAKER WAVES WILL RUN UP THE BEACH MUCH FARTHER THAN
OTHER WAVES, POTENTIALLY CATCHING BEACHGOERS BY SURPRISE AND
RESULTING IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE STRONGEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE. SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD IF POSSIBLE. STAY BACK FROM THE BEACH, AND AWAY
FROM JETTIES, PIERS, BEACHSIDE ROCKS, AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
NEAR THE WATER. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES
10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MALARKEY
LONG TERM....MALARKEY
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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