031
FXUS66 KMTR 292136
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
236 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
- INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1222 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
GOES-WEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MARINE STRATUS
HUGGING THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE AND POINTS SOUTH WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR. AS OF
NOON PDT, TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES OF WHAT THEY WERE COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
BY THE TIME THE AFTERNOON CONCLUDES, EXPECT TEMPERATURES ALONG TO
COAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER-50S TO 60S, WARMING TO THE 70S TO TO
AROUND 90 FOR INLAND COMMUNITIES. ALL-IN-ALL, A VERY TYPICAL
SUMMER DAY.
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WITH UPPER-LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING FOR THE GOLDEN STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE USUAL
MARINE STRATUS FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INLAND. WHILE INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY TO
TUESDAY, COASTAL COMMUNITIES MAY REVERSE AND COOL AS A RESULT OF
THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. THAT SAID, FORECAST HEAKRISK FOR THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW (GREEN) TO MINOR
(YELLOW) CATEGORIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS IN THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND SAN PABLO BAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THERMAL EXPANSION WITHIN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN, A FULL MOON ON MONDAY, AND SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE OVER HALF A FOOT OF SURGE OVER THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. IN ADDITION, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, SEE THE BEACHES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1222 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A ZONAL FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH RETURNING TO THE
90S FOR THE WARMEST INTERIOR COMMUNITIES. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS, BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR NEXT WEEK.
LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE DOES GIVE INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF MVFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH CLEARING
MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN IFR-MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT BAYSHORE AND COASTAL TERMINALS
RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE MORNING TO BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON A CEILING RETURNING TO THE TERMINAL TONIGHT, LIKELY ON
THE CUSP OF IFR/MVFR. REASONABLE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS A DONUT
HOLE DEVELOPS OVER THE TERMINAL WITH STRATUS REMAINING CONFINED ON
THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE APPROACH HAS LOW
PROBABILITIES (<30%) FOR DEVELOPING A CEILING BELOW FL045.
REASONABLE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
TERMINAL AND NORTHWARD.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT BOTH
TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DIURNAL WINDS PREVAILING AT
SJC. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING DEVELOPING AT OAK
TONIGHT VIA A STRATUS FEED THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE GAP.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
MRY AND MVFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT SNS. AN OTTER EDDY IN THE
MONTEREY BAY WILL ADD SOME COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN CLEARING
TIMES THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS AND THE COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES, CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE POINT
REYES COASTAL JET REGION. MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 236 PM PDT MON JUN 29 2026
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PACIFIC COAST
BEACHES THROUGH 5 AM WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES
WITH MODERATE TO STEEP SLOPES ALONG THE NORTH BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ COASTS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SWEEP ACROSS THE
SHORELINE WITHOUT WARNING, PULLING PEOPLE INTO THE SEA FROM ROCKS,
JETTIES AND BEACHES. DANGEROUS SWIMMING AND SURFING CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED. STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS,
ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER
TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN.
MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF AND TIDE FORECASTS AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ROWE
LONG TERM....ROWE
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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