788
FXUS66 KMTR 301819
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1119 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
- INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WORK WEEK. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM POINT
REYES SOUTHWARD AS OF 1200 AM PDT. MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING. TODAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
WITH COASTAL AREAS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
WARMER FOR THE INLAND COMMUNITIES IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST,
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, SEE THE
BEACHES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN!
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S., AND ZONAL FLOW SETS IN. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ONLY TO
MINOR HEATRISK LEVELS. THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THE
CENTER FOR THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND HOW STRONG THE RIDGING
WILL BE. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TO THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES AT ALL BUT COASTAL
SITES. EXPECT BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING THIS
EVENING AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. COASTAL STRATUS
WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE MVFR, EXCEPT LOCAL IFR ALONG THE COAST. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OAK. FOR SJC, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. TONIGHT, WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT OAK, AND SOUTHEAST AT SJC.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS WILL ERODE TO NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SNS UNTIL EARLY
EVENING, WHEN MVFR STRATUS RETURNS. AT MRY, STRATUS SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. IFR STRATUS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS,
SOUTHWEST AT MRY AND NORTHWEST AT SNS, DECREASING THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS AND THE COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES. THIS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE
POINT REYES COASTAL JET REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A BIT WEAKER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MALARKEY
LONG TERM....MALARKEY
AVIATION...TANGEN
MARINE...TANGEN
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