358
FXUS66 KMTR 301917
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1217 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERALL
PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
GOES-WEST VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE MARINE STRATUS BLANKETING
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SONOMA SOUTH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
MONTEREY COUNTIES. COMMUNITIES INLAND, AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STRATUS, ARE ENJOYING THE ABUNDANCE OF JUNE SOLAR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX-OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST, AND WARMING TO THE 70S TO 80S INLAND. FAR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN CONTRA COSTA AND MONTEREY COUNTIES WILL
FLIRT WITH THE 90-DEGREE MARK. WITH THESE FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW LATE JUNE CLIMATOLOGY, THE
HEATRISK TODAY IS SOLIDLY LOW TO MINOR (GREEN TO YELLOW).
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC DRIVER FOR THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SAGGED OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY UN-
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER TO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR US
LOCALLY, THE TROUGH HAS HELPED REINFORCE THE MARINE LAYER ALONG
THE COAST AND AS ALLOWED FOR INLAND AREAS OF CALIFORNIA TO REMAIN
COMFORTABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TROUGH WILL HANG
AROUND ON WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST WHILE
INLAND LOCATIONS COOL BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY RESPOND TO THE RISING HEIGHTS WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. FOR THOSE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
HEATRISK FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN LOW (GREEN) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MINOR
(YELLOW) INLAND. TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND? EVEN THE
TYPICAL HEAT-PRONE AREAS OF CALIFORNIA SUCH AS THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND DESERTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO HAVE MINOR (YELLOW) TO MODERATE
(ORANGE) HEATRISK.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE ENSEMBLES FOR NEXT WEEK ARE TRYING TO
PICK-UP ON A WEST COAST RIDGE, BUT STILL OBSERVING MANY
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF VARYING STRENGTH AND LOCATION. WHILE THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DOES FAVOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF US IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID JULY
7-13), THEY DO KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT TO THE EAST
OF THE BAY AREA, FOCUSING ON THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TO THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES AT ALL BUT COASTAL
SITES. EXPECT BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING THIS
EVENING AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. COASTAL STRATUS
WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE MVFR, EXCEPT LOCAL IFR ALONG THE COAST. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OAK. FOR SJC, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. TONIGHT, WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT OAK, AND SOUTHEAST AT SJC.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS WILL ERODE TO NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SNS UNTIL EARLY
EVENING, WHEN MVFR STRATUS RETURNS. AT MRY, STRATUS SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA AND NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. IFR STRATUS WILL RETURN BY
EARLY EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS,
SOUTHWEST AT MRY AND NORTHWEST AT SNS, DECREASING THIS EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS AND THE COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES. THIS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE
POINT REYES COASTAL JET REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A BIT WEAKER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ROWE
LONG TERM....ROWE
AVIATION...TANGEN
MARINE...TANGEN
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