188
FXUS66 KMTR 010451
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
951 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH OVERALL
PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
GOES-WEST VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE MARINE STRATUS BLANKETING
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SONOMA SOUTH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
MONTEREY COUNTIES. COMMUNITIES INLAND, AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STRATUS, ARE ENJOYING THE ABUNDANCE OF JUNE SOLAR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX-OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST, AND WARMING TO THE 70S TO 80S INLAND. FAR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN CONTRA COSTA AND MONTEREY COUNTIES WILL
FLIRT WITH THE 90-DEGREE MARK. WITH THESE FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW LATE JUNE CLIMATOLOGY, THE
HEATRISK TODAY IS SOLIDLY LOW TO MINOR (GREEN TO YELLOW).
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC DRIVER FOR THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS SAGGED OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY UN-
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER TO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR US
LOCALLY, THE TROUGH HAS HELPED REINFORCE THE MARINE LAYER ALONG
THE COAST AND AS ALLOWED FOR INLAND AREAS OF CALIFORNIA TO REMAIN
COMFORTABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TROUGH WILL HANG
AROUND ON WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST WHILE
INLAND LOCATIONS COOL BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1217 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY RESPOND TO THE RISING HEIGHTS WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. FOR THOSE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
HEATRISK FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN LOW (GREEN) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MINOR
(YELLOW) INLAND. TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND? EVEN THE
TYPICAL HEAT-PRONE AREAS OF CALIFORNIA SUCH AS THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND DESERTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO HAVE MINOR (YELLOW) TO MODERATE
(ORANGE) HEATRISK.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE ENSEMBLES FOR NEXT WEEK ARE TRYING TO
PICK-UP ON A WEST COAST RIDGE, BUT STILL OBSERVING MANY
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF VARYING STRENGTH AND LOCATION. WHILE THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DOES FAVOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF US IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (VALID JULY
7-13), THEY DO KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT TO THE EAST
OF THE BAY AREA, FOCUSING ON THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
MVFR CIGS LAST ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY. THE
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHT TO MODERATE. CIGS FALL TO IFR LEVELS IN THE LATE NIGHT AT MRY
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH SOME IFR CIGS
FORMING AT APC. CLOUD COVER ERODES AT APC IN THE MID MORNING WITH
OTHER SITES SEEING CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR. WINDS BUILD AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO MODERATE TO BREEZY LEVELS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WEST WINDS
REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT, AND BECOME LIGHT BY THE EARLY MORNING AS
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER THINS INTO
THE MID MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE MODERATE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE FURTHER IN THE MID AFTERNOON, PEAKING AROUND 16 KTS BEFORE
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN INTO THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO SFO ONCE AGAIN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. MRY CIGS LOOKS TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS IN THE EARLY
MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO REDUCE. CIGS ERODES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AS MODERATE WINDS BUILD.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON THE CLEARING AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, A REPEAT OF TUESDAY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
WHILE WEAKER, YET STILL GUSTY WINDS AFFECT THE REST OF THE WATERS.
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A BIT WEAKER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SHORT TERM...ROWE
LONG TERM....ROWE
AVIATION...KIDWELL
MARINE...MURDOCK
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