259
FXUS66 KMTR 010706
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1206 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW AT 500
HPA. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST WEEK, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO BE LOCKED IN PLACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ALONG THE COAST. AS HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
ALONG COASTAL COMMUNITIES, WITH THOSE INLAND IN THE 70S TO MID
80S. MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY ERODE ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MONTEREY
BAY AREA. ALTHOUGH, COMMUNITIES LOCATED ALONG MONTEREY BAY SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN LOCKED UNDER THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW THE SUN TO
BREAK THROUGH BRIEFLY AT TIMES. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ON THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN INLAND.
FRIDAY ONWARD, WE WILL START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK
DOWN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL ALSO START TO SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS, WE WILL START TO SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70, WITH MORE NOTABLE WARMING NOTED FOR INLAND AREAS. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR INLAND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WILL BE SEEN. AS A RESULT, HEATRISK ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW (GREEN), WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE MINOR
(YELLOW). AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH, CPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA UNDER FAVORABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
MVFR CIGS LAST ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY. THE
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHT TO MODERATE. CIGS FALL TO IFR LEVELS IN THE LATE NIGHT AT MRY
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH SOME IFR CIGS
FORMING AT APC. CLOUD COVER ERODES AT APC IN THE MID MORNING WITH
OTHER SITES SEEING CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR. WINDS BUILD AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY TO MODERATE TO BREEZY LEVELS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WEST WINDS
REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT, AND BECOME LIGHT BY THE EARLY MORNING AS
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER THINS INTO
THE MID MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE MODERATE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE FURTHER IN THE MID AFTERNOON, PEAKING AROUND 16 KTS BEFORE
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN INTO THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO SFO ONCE AGAIN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. MRY CIGS LOOKS TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS IN THE EARLY
MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO REDUCE. CIGS ERODES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY AS MODERATE WINDS BUILD.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLEARING AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, A REPEAT OF TUESDAY IS STILL POSSIBLE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
WHILE WEAKER, YET STILL GUSTY WINDS AFFECT THE REST OF THE WATERS.
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A BIT WEAKER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM....GUNKEL
AVIATION...KIDWELL
MARINE...MURDOCK
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