383
FXUS66 KMTR 011108
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
408 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW AT 500
HPA. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST WEEK, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE MARINE LAYER TO BE LOCKED IN PLACE AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ALONG THE COAST. AS HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
ALONG COASTAL COMMUNITIES, WITH THOSE INLAND IN THE 70S TO MID
80S. MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY ERODE ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MONTEREY
BAY AREA. ALTHOUGH, COMMUNITIES LOCATED ALONG MONTEREY BAY SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN LOCKED UNDER THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE DAY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW THE SUN TO
BREAK THROUGH BRIEFLY AT TIMES. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1146 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ON THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
UNDER THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN INLAND.
FRIDAY ONWARD, WE WILL START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK
DOWN OVER THE AREA. WE WILL ALSO START TO SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS, WE WILL START TO SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70, WITH MORE NOTABLE WARMING NOTED FOR INLAND AREAS. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR INLAND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WILL BE SEEN. AS A RESULT, HEATRISK ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW (GREEN), WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE MINOR
(YELLOW). AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH, CPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA UNDER FAVORABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 408 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WHILE ONSHORE WINDS ALSO
CONTINUE. STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS TODAY. COASTAL STRATUS REDEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
VICINITY OF SJC AND OAK...SAN JOSE AIRPORT VFR, SOUTHEAST WIND
HOLDING NEAR 13 KNOTS THROUGH MORNING, DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND 21Z TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. OAKLAND AIRPORT STRATUS /MVFR/ MIXING
OUT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND 5 TO 12 KNOTS.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ MIXES OUT TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING AND/OR AFTERNOON. STRATUS /MVFR-IFR/ REDEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE SALINAS
VALLEY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2026
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHILE
WEAKER, YET STILL GUSTY WINDS AFFECT THE REST OF THE WATERS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL EASE BY LATE
WEEK. MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE OUTER WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE TO ROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM....GUNKEL
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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